World Cup 98 - A Preview - THE SUMMARY 
 
 
WORLD CUP 98 is part of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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The hard life of a favorite, prognosis, continental hops, refs in trouble, Africans and Asians ready to surprise and traps the modus sets up... 

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 32 teams will battle it out at France from June 10th to July 12th. Although the extension to 32 made more starters from Asia, Africa and North-/Centralamerica possible. Some big teams are already out, some teams of the future are not in yet. Australia, Chech Republic, Uruguay, and Egypt are among the ones that will be missed as are also some great footballers like the Liberian George Weah or the best European league scorer 1997/98 Nicos Mahlas from Greece. 
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 The further back you look, the more difficult it had been to overcome the continental homefield advantage. Europeans won at Europe, South Americans at (South-)America. Only Brazil 1958 made the exception. But today travelling is easier and experience has grown. And many teams like Brazil rely on a lot of European based players anyway. 
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1. the hard life of a favorite
2. prognosis, continents, referees
3. Africa and Asia
4. the mode and experiences
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 More difficult to overcome for Brazil will be the luck required to become the first World Champion since 1958 to be able to defend their titles. It had been - Brazil 1962. But the knock-out system rapidly clamps down the probability value for an imagined 'best team' to win. How close those tournaments are, you can see from the following: In all World Cup tournaments in which the finalists had to play five or more matches (since 1950), no winner has been able to win all their matches. Except from one - Brazil 1970. (matches decided on penalties count as ties but this makes no difference here). Although Brazil can be considered as favorite, the probability it does not become World Champions is above 70%! 
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2nd part of the summery 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

  
 This is also the opinion of the 'real experts' - the bookmakers. They are not allowed to judge wrong too often otherwise bankrupcy threatens. From their odds you can calculate directly how their experts evaluate the probability a team reaches a particular goal. Also you can see whether betting makes sense for you. 
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 Many test matches have been played, but predicting the World Cup performance on their basis would be a mistake. Who is in form now is in form too early. More can be read of tournaments of the past including youth championships and the Olympics. But there have to be made some exceptions, some teams, especially Germany, England, etc. are 'late-developers' and youth tournaments are not taken this seriously. But Nigeria, Brazil, Argentina, Tunesia, South Corea, and Japan had a real test at the Olympics. Tunisia did no harm, the other five looked strong with all of them exposed vulnerable spots. 
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1. the hard life of a favorite
2. prognosis, continents, referees
3. Africa and Asia
4. the mode and experiences
back to top
 
  
 The World Cup has been the battle of the different continental styles. In modern 'business' those styles blur with players from all over the world playing everywhere else and gaining knowledge from other continents. Anyway some characteristics have still remained. For example that Asian teams do not play as physical as their African and European counterparts yet. The new attempt to clamp down on dangerous tackles might help them. It has lead to a discussion whether the idea is right and whether the moment to install it has been properly chosen. Many expect the referees influence on the first matches, with teams and referees unsure in interpretation, as too big. Others hope to see more excitement because defenders fear to spoil their teams chances and forwards risking more in one against one situations. 
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3rd part of the summery
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

  
 Africa was predicted a successful tournament. But although the qualified teams prepared better than expected they will find it hard to arise to the expectations. They are taken seriously now. If you believe the bookmakers prognosis, three to four of Africas five will fail in the first round. One of the reasons has been the seeding. It made it easier for the Europeans and more difficult for Nigeria.  
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It has been feared, three of the five African teams would arrive with insufficient preparations because of difficulties within their associations but they all found experienced coaches and though they lack consistency in built-up they will show in a better shape than thought. 
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 Asia could have its coming out at France. While Africas results (winning per game) declined a bit from 1982 to 1994 because they were taken more seriously, Asia has improved. At the Olympics they were already close to surprise the big.  

 
 
 		  
1. the hard life of a favorite
2. prognosis, continents, referees
3. Africa and Asia
4. the mode and experiences
back to top
 
  
 At this World Cup they feature a fine package of four teams with different strength and might be able to stage one or two surprises. Like maybe the North-and Centralamericans, too they seem underrated. The bookmakers prognost them no, maybe one team in the second round and this will also be in the heads of their opponents. 
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 After the World Cup the Continents contigents will be rediscussed. This discussion has often been talked with false arguments. 1994 it has been avoided by the extension from 24 to 32 but 2002 two Asian teams will be directly qualified. Somebody has to accept fewer qualificants or qualification has to be reorganised. Europe and South-America seem overrepresented for some reasons. And this overrepresentaion influences the result. The result again seems to justify the overrepresentation. But this is deceiving. A different point of view should be developed.  
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last part of the summery
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

 
 Even the first round mode can prove itself to be tricky for psychological reasons. The African Cup Of Nations has shown that the third match is dangerous for teams that have to defend a group lead in the third match against a contender. The return to the system with only 2 teams advancing from each group can create a special case that even teams who won two group matches have to go home. This is bitter although you might argue that there has been a lost match. But remember: Sweden reached semi-finals 1994 (like Belgium 1986) with only two 'real' victories. 
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 This recalls to us the tie problem in knock-out rounds. At the Euro 96 of the 7 play-off matches (quarter-finals, semi-finals,final) 5 went to extra-time and despite the Golden Goal rule 4 of those were decided on penalties. This rate (higher than 50%) is far too high, you almost could determine the World Cup winner by a coin toss right away. This and injustice in the card system (yellow, red) always has to be discussed. 
 
 
 		  
1. the hard life of a favorite
2. prognosis, continents, referees
3. Africa and Asia
4. the mode and experiences
back to top
 
  
 It can be hoped that the other measures FIFA took (clampdown on fouls, a faster game by various ideas) have a good influence but there are more ideas and the development of football of a club sports to a trust enterprise must be taken into account. 
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 Many people will have different opinions but few of them speak French. But when the toad meets the frog you might profit. 
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 There might be more, World Cup remarks, songs, whatever. Check out The Shot daily or just let yourself be notified of new additions to The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net perminent World Cup update. 
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