70% SURE: BRASIL WILL NOT WIN THE WORLD CUP!  
By the master of caluclation, the New Dr. Günter Pröpper...
 
This is a component of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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The curse of the knock-out system - How likely does a favorite team become World Cup winner   
A first investigation...  
 
The Document first gives (1) an introduction, (2) a first general view on the example Brasil's mathematical chances, and (3) two more detailed examples
 
You don' believe? Then check on  81% sure: Brasil will not win the World Cup - says INTERTOPS
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
(In the following all matches that were decided by the penalty lottery are counted as ties). 

It is more difficult for the best team to win the World Cup as many believe. This is caused by the way the Cup is played. A knock-out system does not forgive a mistake in the wrong moment, a bad day, or even just bad luck. Remember Brasil 1990. Maybe they were a team about to lose only one of twenty matches, but they had this match in the first knock-out round. So they did not have anymore matches to prove how strong they were and went home as a failure. 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
It is almost impossible for a team to win 7 consecutive matches. Most teams who reach the finals of such big tournaments, have to sneak through somehow at some point, or at least had a low point in the first round. The only team that could win all their matches since the second world war has been the Brasil of 1970. But since then football has changed, the matches have become closer, more and more decided by single moments. Germany 1982, 1986, and 1990, needed a won penalty shoot-out along their way to reach finals, in 1982 and 1986 they had lost first round matches to Algeria and Danmark. Italy 1982 and 1994 had struggeled in the first round and somehow got through, while the strong 1990 squadra had their problem suddenly in the semis. Belgium made the semi-finals 1986 despite winning only two matches, Sweden did not win any more 1994 (apart from the 3rd place play off). And finally Brasil 1994 won the final on penalties and had a first round draw with Sweden. 

a cloud to sail upon...?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 

 
  
Imagine your machine is runnung well right from the start. This can be a cloud to sail on but it can be a psychological problem as well. There is not much room for improvement but for doubt. Suddenly there occur problems. Many teams which played above their average potential for some matches then were bitterly punished. Think of USSR and Denmark 1986, even Spain. Romania could not keep the same level for all matches in 1994. Among teams that struggeled in the first round and then pulled together were Germany 1982, 1986, Italy 1982 and 1994, Bulgaria 1994, Argentina and England 1990, or Germany 1974. Sometimes it is very good to have a bad moment in the first round and then see yourself improving. It is only very difficult to plan such a moment.  
But a coach can do things to avoid a self-deceiving show-performance... 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
The glamour of a 6:1 victory in the first knock out round can not help you when you struggle on the next day, when suddenly things are not so easy anymore, and lose 0:1 in the second. The most recent warning example has been the U20 team of Brasil. Strong favorites to win the world chamionship, they thrashed the before the tournament high rated South Coreans and the first round successful Belgians both by scoring 10(ten!) goals in each of those 2 matches. The next match was against Argentina. Argentina knew how to play against Brasil and won it. Brasil hardly had a goal opportunity. 
  
in play-off it is essential to win on the bad day anyway... 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
  
Thus teams that arrived with talented attacking power but based their game on a solid defense, have been more succesful recently. Argentina 1986 and Brasil 1994 played that way. But do never forget, Brasil won it without a real goal opportunity in the finals, they won it on penalties! (The outcry in the world, had Italy won, had been loud. To decide the World Cup such a way is a shame. It has only been accepted because the 'right' team had won). Such a strategy can cope better with a bad day. If your success depends exclusively on your creativity, a bad day, a concentrated and clever opponent can spoil it more easy. But at least, after the tournament, you have the fame. When you play careful and get knocked out, you have nothing worth to remember. 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
  
Nigeria 1996 at the Olympics was a team that won by its attacking powers but had the Nigerians faced more experienced Brasil and Argentina sides, the errors they had made before they were able to turn around the matches had not been forgiven. 
There will be only one winner and 31 losers, how hard they ever try and which strategie they ever choose. Did you play a flamboyant tournament, you can feel as a winner as well. So the wish should be: Are you favorite, play it a little save, are you just talented, try something special, are you complete outsiders, be the shark that profits from lightfooted attitude of the talented by discipline. Then we will have a fine World Cup with favorites advancing, artists exciting and outsiders surprising. 

now finally we get to the calculation of the chances for Brasil... 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
  
Now we come to the chances for the favorites to win it. First you have to understand what percentage means here. Let us create a 'best team of the world'. Let us call it Brasil. If you say this Brasil wins the next match by 85%, despite the high value, this does not mean at all that indeed Brasil will win. It only means, was the match played a thousand times, Brasil might win round about 850 times. But which match you will see, one of the 850 or one of the other 150, this value does not tell you at all. Another way to look at it: Winning 6 of 7 matches is a terrible high value. It means anyway that you do not win one of those seven matches. If you think of the World Cup, which one will it be? A first round match? A knock-out match? 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
Anyway this value is much to high. Brasil might win its 6 of 7 matches against minnows but think of the Mini-World Cup in France last year. Brasil was in top form, exciting the crowds. But they won only one of three matches. There are some opponents for Brasil, especially Italy and Argentina, who usually play very well against them. In those matches the odds should be almost down to 50:50. Remember that last year was the first time Brasil could win the Copa America away from home and apart from Bolivia they faced only B-selections. Remember also, Brasil, despite trying everything possible, could not win the Olympic gold medal in 1996 they were desperately seeking to (Romario recently said that it was a great dream for him to win at Sydney 2000). 

Brasil might even face Italy early. Italy did not win their group 1982 and 1994, but reached the final later...
 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
  
So 6 of 7, even for Brasil, is far too high, especially if it comes to the big opponents in knock-out matches. It has showed in the past that not all favorites make it through to the second round by winning their groups. Usually a number of them, finish only second. This could mean, that instead of an easy last-16 match against Austria, Chile or Cameroon, Brasil could face Italy. And this would happen to them with few possibilities to influence this coincidence. How much this can affect the tournament will be shown now. 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
But first let us consider an average value of 75% (made of 90 % against Austria and 60 % against Italy), what is very, very high, for Brasil to advance in any play-off match. As shown before, this value means, if looked at from the other side, Brasil would lose one of four matches (or at least draw and go out on penalties). So it is obvious, Brasil, as any other team, to win the World Cup have to be above-average lucky: they have to win all four knock-out matches in a row! This requirement of luck is caused by the number of four play-off rounds and the high number of participating teams, this is not because Brasil are not strong. Now you can calculate the probability of Brasil winning: It is 75% of 75% of 75% of 75%. Or easier: 0,75*0,75*0,75*0,75=0,316. Only in 31,6% of the cases this 'best' team team wins the World Cup. This is less than every third World Cup. And this value even neglects the slim possibility of an early first round failure and does not take the qualification into account as well (that Brasil did not have to play of course). 

30% for Brasil leaves only 70% to devide among Germany, Argentina, Italy, France, England, Netherlands, Nigeria (=10% average) and the other 24...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
  
That even this value is too high, you can easily imagine, if you consider the following: The 100% have to be distributed on all the 32 participating teams. OK, you might be able to neglect some teams now, but if Brasil has 30%, there are only 70% left for Argentina, France, Germany, Italy, Nigeria, Netherlands and England (and whoever). This means less than 10% in average for each of those giants. Now you might start to develop a feeling for how much luck is involved in winning such a tournament. 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
If you played out the championship on a league basis, this all would become different. But the effect we can watch here in the play-off system is caused by the fact that a team that has lost, cannot play on anymore to recorrect their result. In a league you can lose the first match and win the rest, in knock-out football you are out. Also teams might face a schedule of different difficulty.  
Remember that Brasil has had brilliant teams at each World Cup, at least since 1982 but anyway only once(!!) in the last four tournaments reached the semi-finals (Germany, Italy three times, Argentina, England, and France twice). 

Brasil might face a schedule that makes it even unsure to reach the semi-finals...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 
(About all single evaluations you could argue, but you should try to see there is a general tendency that is not much affected by changing the values by some percent). 
 
Now we might have a little more detailed look on the effect of the outcome of Group B for Brasil. We will look at two examples: One, making it difficult, one, making it easy for Brasil, and this all by no possibility for Brasil to influence. Italy as a runner-up would be so dangerous, as we said, struggling in the first round leaves much space for intensification and can lull opponents already focussing on the match after. (Of course it could be also a Group B winner Italy against a Group A runner up Brasil, but here we want to concentrate on Brasil playing well as predicted). Now as said before, this is a dangerous moment for Brasil, anyway let us rate optimistic: 60% to win. (But this means, in 40 % of the cases they are already gone!) 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
 
  
Next round, they meet the winner of the match D1 vs. C2. It might be Nigeria, who they already lost to at the Olympics 96 and they start to get nervous. It might even be the home team, that has had some problems in the first round but now reconsolidated and are hard to beat at home. Anyway, in this match we give Brasil a maybe overrated 70%. But only in 60% of the cases they had advanced to this match. The consequence: The odds to reach the semi-final are only (0,6*0,7=0,42) 42% ! 
Of course, in the semi-finals archrivals Argentina lure, and this really should be a 50:50 match. To avoid any arguments with you, let's make it 60% anyway. Altogether it means (0,6*0,7*0,6=0,252) 25,2% to reach the finals at all! And who waits there? Germany (or hosts France). Tough but that far the Brasilians can hardly be stopped. Let us give enthusiastic 70% to them: (0,6*0,7*0,6*0,7=0,176) From 31,6 % to 17,6% have sunk the odds to win the World Cup for Brasil without their influence! 

With a more lucky way Brasil might win the Cup with the same chances as reaching the semi-final in the example before (while playing the same strong)...
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 


 

 
 
Now imagine Brasil are terribly lucky and get Austria in the first play off match and Bulgaria in the second. As a gift the surprise team of Tunisia in the semi-finals. Only in the finals they meet a strong opponent. We take some random values 90%, 85%, 80%, 70%. The result (and always consider that those values should be too high anyway)?: Even this 'joke' of a program leaves them with only a rate of  42,8% to win when those impressive odds have to be multiplied because of the loss-means-out play-off system. 
 
 
 		  
 
 
 
 
  
Brasils chances might be higher than the ones of any other team, but the chances that some other team, one of those 31, will win, remains always higher than theirs. Only every thrird, every fourth World Cup they can win. But as told before: such a value cannot tell you anything about the outcome of a single case. It might be one of the 300 World cups they would win, it might be one one of the 700 they would not.  
P.S.: You could all see it from a different angle: in more than half of the cases (about two third) at least one of the two, Germany or Brasil, are reaching the finals, in a few cases it is both. 

Single results of such stochastic processes are not predictable. And this one (the World Cup at France) is not as well. Even if the team wins that you predicted. And even if you had reasons. 

That this is not a fantasy of The Shot That Passed Right Throught The Net you can see when you analyse the odds of the bookmakers. Those real experts (they risk their existence if they evaluate wrong) predict even worse for Brasil. Look at their figures for the World Cup favorite and all the other teams in the essay: 
81 % sure - Brasil will not win - says Intertops
 
 
 
This is a component of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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