World Cup 98 - A Preview - THE ASIAN COMING OUT?
 
WORLD CUP 98 PREVIEW is part of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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Asia is predicted far less to by the experts of the betting offices than to Africa. What the diagram means, why The Shot... thinks Asia is underrated, why Asia cannot have four semi-finalists, why aliens could think the East was the West and Europe was the bottom, all about the Iranian fairytale, and more, tells this essay 

GO EAST
 
 
 
 

 
 Go East? What aliens from outerspace might think about East or West you can read in the essay World Cup 2002 - Who Owns The World? that examines the role that the structural relationship of Asia, Africa, and Europe plays in the reception of the game in the world. 
 Asia, yet a Cinderella short before the discovery? While Africa is praised for their talent, Asia carries the myth of the diligent learners and workers. While Japan and Corea might be on the mind when making those associations, a team like Saudi Arabia might stand for the opposite pole, the image of the elegant stars. Before the World Cup 1994 there had been one and only one Asian team to win a match at a World Cup final and only this one team had been a serious threat. It had been North Corea who eliminated Italy 1:0 in the final first round match 1966 and were short before surprising Eusebios's Portugal in the quarter finals, one of the most exciting in history, in the end losing 3:5. From 1978 on there had been a big difference in the success of Asian and African teams at the  
final tournaments although both were labelled as the same weak.  
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
Xpart1 part2 part3
2. The Iranian fairytale
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
As you can see from the diagrams and figures African teams had a much better points per game average than the Asians. Because of the seeding (Africans and Asians were considered as minnows and were only allowed to play against stronger teams from Europe and America but not to play against each other) their first intercontinental encounter was 1994 at USA with Morocco and Saudi Arabia drawn into one group. Here Saudi Arabia got the first Asian win since 1966 and added a second one against Belgium. This made it the first World Cup in which Asians were more successful than Africans.  
  
A change?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 A sign of change? Did the experts wrong who promised Africa everything and did not care about Asia much? And if, why then?  
 Many experts speak of the 'small' football nations have closed the gap. It is true that knowledge about the basics of the game has improved everywhere in the world, not at last because television has conquered the space of visual experiences and is delivering almost daily samples to learn from. Especially African players have played in Europe and been able to pass on their knowledge. Because of the shortage of European based professionals, Asia had to go a different way. But also football in the 'old' football world has further improved. 
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
part1   Xpart1   part3
2. The Iranian fairytale
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
 Technical facilities, new methods, new tactics, the new concept of a team consistsing of 22 instead of 11 players, a higher number of special coaches, etc, it all has made the football especially in Europe stronger as well. Also Europeans do not tend to be complacant anymore towards the same Africans they now know from their home leagues as strong competitors. 
 That is why the progress the outsiders made usually is not reflected in the results. 
 If it is not a match like Brazil against Australia in the Confederations Cup. In the first round they met and Australia, hard working against a medium motivated Brasilian crew, was able to keep it 0:0 until the final whistle. In the final they met again, this time it ended 6:0 for Brazil.  

the differences between Asia and Africa
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

  
 Now, where is the difference between Asia and Africa? One is, Africa is taken more seriously than Asia. African teams look stronger, look capable even beating the biggest nations by their pure skills. African players are stars in European leagues and Africans usually look bigger and stronger. Africa has already been predicted the Cup while Asia seems only capable to surprise in one or two particular matches. Has this image of being capable to overcome the superiority of the others by the mentioned diligent working and learning.  
 Those remains of complacency are the first advantage for Asia. You cannot fear each team the same and Asia has reched the less yet. 
 The second one is money and infrastructure, although one has to consider that each participating nation has its own specific situations. Anyway, a good preparation of the majority of the teams than of the Africans looked more likely and the determination to come up as a team, rather than a collection of individuals playing for new even better European club contracts should be considered as more serious. 
 Another point that might play its part this time: the clampdown on dangerous tackles might be more problematic for South Africa, Cameroon, or Nigeria. The less physical Asian game might get helped. 
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
part1   part2   Xpart3
2. The Iranian fairytale
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
  This is why Asia seems underrated when for example the betting offices odds suggest, that between zero and one team might make it to the second round. 
 To see this, change to the diagram section. To read about the particular teams, move on below. 

 P.S. Why Asia cannot have four semi-finalists? Because of the mode and the draw. Of each half, Group A-D, and Group E-H, two teams advance to the semi-finals, they cannot meet before. Asias team were drawn 1:3 into those two halfs. This means only two out of the three Iran, Corea, and Japan could make it to the semi-finals. That this question can be interesting you can see at the African example as soon as the document will be available (Here it is even 4:1). 

the chances of the particular teams
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
The Iranian fairytale  

 When considering the prospects for a team, it has always to be taken into consideration which opponent fits which style more. Whatever will happen, Iran is an outstanding, talented team, capable of exciting the world. Three players made it into the Bundesliga last season. One can see it from both sides. One is, on the pitch they adapted much faster to the German game than for example African 'imports' usually do. Anyway they had their problems. One was flying back and fourth to the qualification matches. Finally the clubs of all three became relegated. But this did not do much damage to the players. Ali Daei now has been transfered to Bayern München and this should be enough to say about the quality of the player. Bundesliga clubs have focussed two more players and concerning experiences this World Cup comes a little early.  
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
2. The Iranian fairytale
Xpart1   part2
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 The whole story has been a football fairytale. What this did for the Iranian image in Germany that had been ridden by the usual klischees is hard to describe. It has been maybe even as big as what the integration of African star players in Bundesliga has been able to move, maybe even more. It depends of course on how the story will go on. Anyway Iran are outsiders. But outsiders capable of doing the special thing. Their qualification matches were as emotional as decisive matches can be. Minutes you could think the team becomes totally thrashed, dissolving in a paralysation-like panic, totally in disorder. The next ten minutes an unexpected switch to inspired attacks, creative game, and, what distinguishes them from other creative but harmless teams, the ability to score, even out of the blue.  

Iran faces tough opponents
 
 
 
 
 
 

  
Iran (2)  

Irans way, capable to strike but vulnurable in defence, is difficult to predict. They face tough opponents, it could have been an easier group. Yougoslavia, the team that is able to punish defensive disorder with running up the score. If a team falls apart, Yugoslavia is able to punish them like no other. On the other side, they might supply complacency and a defence that is allowing Iran to profit. But this match seems the most difficult. If they mentally survive the result, whatever it is, they will have to matches in which they will look better. USA, the second opponent, will fight hard, especially in that match.  
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
2. The Iranian fairytale
part1   Xpart2
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 They want to prove themselves, and this will be the match they think they can win points. Here Iran has to score to set up a situation they might profit from in the third match. Germany, the third opponent, often had problems in the third match of the tournament. This is not new for a team that is favorite and starts concentrated. They might already be through or they only need to defend their advantage. Some players might not want to risk a second yellow card. This situation can be dangerous. Iran knows the German style well and is the most excited about this match. The USA might not pay much attention to this game, but anyway, Iran can change the image of the world here.  
  
the other three Asian starters
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
  
Saudi-Arabia, South Corea, Japan  

Saudi-Arabia has spend enormous sums. They hired the 'best' coach, the one that coached the last World Champion Brazil, Carlos Albert Parreira. They have creative potential, especially since after a disappointing Intercontinental Cup the long banned Al Oweiran, their 1994 star, has returned to the team. Recent competition results suggest the thesis that Saudi-Arabia should do easier against South Africa than against the Europeans in their group. But Denmark does not look too strong yet and South Africa might have learned from the Intercontinental Cup defeat.  

South Corea and Japan almost staged surprises in tough groups at the Olympics. Limited in some features, especially Japan has impressed recently by determination and talent.  
  South Corea should be too harmless to endanger the big if those play concentrated but they will be able to threat not smoothly running engines of Belgium or Mexico.  
They scared Germany in 1994 finals and had the match been 10 minutes longer, it might had ended different (Germany won 3:2 after leading 3:0). They already had gained a point against Spain who had been one of the better teams. Coreas slow but steady improvement should make their first win in their fourth appearance possible. And maybe more.  
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
2. The Iranian fairytale
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 Japan is a young, quite talented team, running for their lives (at least in important matches). They look as if some teams are just too big (physically, experience) yet for them. But against South Americans they already proved they have a chance. If Argentina is not prepared it will be in danger of getting caught like Brazil at the Olympics (Japan won 1:0). Especially because of the attitude Japan is an interesting team, their star Nakata is awaited to be seen by many fans. Whether they have a chance to compete with Croatia and Jamaica, obviously stronger in the problem zones mentioned above, reamains to be seen.  

 Asia should do better than predicted and, if luck is not against them, will bring at least one team to the second round.  

diagrams and figures showing more
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

  
Diagrams and figures 
A B 
C D
E F
 
 
1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
2. The Iranian fairytale
3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
4. Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
A. How Asia did in their weak phase 82-90 
The following table is taken from the document How Africa was put at disatvantage at World Cups until 1994 from The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net archives. It gives an introduction how tables and statistics can deceive and it proves by mathematical evidence that Africa had deserved more places at the World Cup already much earlier.  
In this table you can see the winning percentage (win per game played, draw is 0.5) of all intercontinental matches (Europe vs. Africa, Europe vs. Asia etc.) played at World Cup finals 1982-1990. (Taking matches Europe vs. Europe into account would only shift the numbers closer to 0.500 because every win then is a loss, too).  
What it means for Asia, is obvious: Asia did not very good on those three occasions and this is probably where the underrating comes from. The good opinion on Africa also came with considerable delay. 
                Games    W  T  L         Goals  pct. 
1.EUROPE          81    38 23 20        135-84  0.611 
2.SOUTH-AMER      49    21 13 15         67-56  0.561 
3.AFRICA          21     6  8  7         18-24  0.476 
4.NTH/CTL-AM      21     5  4 12         15-37  0.333 
5.ASIA            15     0  2 13         10-34  0.067 
6.AUSTR/OCEA       3     0  0  3          2-12  0.000
  
A 
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index
 
B. How Asia suddenly passed by Africa 1994 
With Saudi-Arabian success 1994 an unexpected upturn for Asia then left Africa behind (CAF=African Confederation AFC=Asian Confederation). 
 
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index
 
C. How Asia is predicted to do 
Bookmakers count as the real experts. From the odds offered by the big betting offices one can derive a percentage, how likely a progress of a particular team is. More about this you will find in the essay 81% sure: Brasil will not become World Champions - says Intertops. A value of 20% reaching the second round for example means that if the World Cup was played 100 times about 20 times the team would make it to the second round.  
As you can see all four Asian teams are complete outsiders, the biggest outsider of the whole tournament is Iran (also because of the strong group). Even the accumulated value signals it is considered only a 66,7% chance that any Asian team will still be there after the group games. This seems really low. 
 
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index
 
D. How the Confederations are predicted 
This is the diagram from the top. Like in the preceding diagram it is the predicted probability percentage for the teams taken from the bookmakers odds, accumulated for the continental confederations. (AFC=Asia, CAF=Africa, CONMEBOL=South-America, CONCACAF=Nth/Ctl-America, UEFA=Europe). UEFA has a value of more than 1000 percent for the second round. This means that if the tournament is played 100 times it is expected that an average of 10 European teams will advance from group matches.  This value of course no other continent can even theoretically reach, because no other confederation is granted as many places (The highest numbers are South America and Africa with 5).  
It springs to the eye that North/Central America is considered as bad as Asia much because Mexico, ranked quite high in FIFA World rankings has not had too many good results recently although winning the Gold Cup.  
 
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index
 
E. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By Continents 
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents are rated by Intertops (average values). It is obvious that the average value for first round opponents of South Americans (2,3 % to win the Cup) and Europeans (2,8%) is quite low. Their easy task has come from the fact that a certain percentage of their contigent was top-seeded before the draw and such excluded from the danger of facing too strong opponents. 
 
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index
 
F. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By Asian Starters 
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents for the particular Asian starters are rated by Intertops (average values). It is easy to see that South Corea has some prospects for an upset while the low rating for Iran originates in their mission impossible: Germany and Yugoslavia are rated high. 
 
A 
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index
 
back to diagram index
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
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