World Cup 98 - A Preview - AN AFRICAN CHAMPION? |
WORLD CUP 98 PREVIEW is part of | THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET |
world cup 98 site map |
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The following table is taken from the document How Africa was put at disatvantage at World Cups until 1994 from The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net archives. It gives an introduction how tables and statistics can deceive and it proves by mathematical evidence that Africa had deserved more places at the World Cup already much earlier. In this table you can see the winning percentage (win per game played, draw is 0.5) of all intercontinental matches (Europe vs. Africa, Europe vs. Asia etc.) played at World Cup finals 1982-1990. (Taking matches Europe vs. Europe into account would only shift the numbers closer to 0.500 because every win then is a loss, too). The good opinion on Africa obviously came with considerable delay. Games W T L Goals pct. 1.EUROPE 81 38 23 20 135-84 0.611 2.SOUTH-AMER 49 21 13 15 67-56 0.561 3.AFRICA 21 6 8 7 18-24 0.476 4.NTH/CTL-AM 21 5 4 12 15-37 0.333 5.ASIA 15 0 2 13 10-34 0.067 6.AUSTR/OCEA 3 0 0 3 2-12 0.000 |
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B. How Africas
number of places improved 78-98
Winning percentage is one story, advancing to the second round another. This is not a too valuable table because it consideres all teams as same strong. It implies the idea, if you have 10% of the teams starting you should participate at the teams making it to the next round with 10%, too. Above this line, the tournament was a success for you. You can see that Africa never reached that average line and is not predicted to this time as well. At France98 the idea would require 3 teams to make it to the second round. In that case it can be spoken of a breakthrough.
Now the same game with the third round. This table only tells one thing already known: That Cameroon 1990 has been an outstanding success yet.
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C. How Asia
suddenly passed by Africa 1994
The tendency for Africa is down when it comes to overall winning percentage. For the first time Asia passed them by 1994 with Saudi Arabia doing as good as Nigeria statistically. (CAF=African Confederation AFC=Asian Confederation). |
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D. How Africa
is predicted to do
Bookmakers count as the real experts. From the odds offered by the big betting offices one can derive a percentage, how likely a progress of a particular team is. More about this you will find in the essay 81% sure: Brasil will not become World Champions - says Intertops. A value of 20% reaching the second round for example means that if the World Cup was played 100 times about 20 times the team would make it to the second round. As you can see, Africa alltogether is predicted 1,5 places in the second round. It seems not unlikely Africa might do better. It surprises that Cameroon is ranked #2 but as we will see in diagrams G/H below, this comes because their opponents are ranked low. The North Africans are considered of less impact. By the way - Nigeria, due to FIFA world rankings is far the worst team of the tournament. |
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E. How the
Confederations are predicted
This is the diagram from the top. Like in the preceding diagram it is the predicted probability percentage for the teams taken from the bookmakers odds, accumulated for the continental confederations. (AFC=Asia, CAF=Africa, CONMEBOL=South-America, CONCACAF=Nth/Ctl-America, UEFA=Europe). UEFA has a value of more than 1000 percent for the second round. This means that if the tournament is played 100 times it is expected that an average of 10 European teams will advance from group matches. This value of course no other continent can even theoretically reach, because no other confederation is granted as many places (The highest numbers are South America and Africa with 5). It springs to the eye that South America is considered much stronger with the same number of starters as Africa but this includes Brazil and Argentina. |
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F. Average
Rating Of First Round Opponents By Continents
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents are rated by Intertops (average values). It is obvious that the average value for first round opponents of South Americans (2,3 % to win the Cup) and Europeans (2,8%) is quite low. Their easy task has come from the fact that a certain percentage of their contigent was top-seeded before the draw and such excluded from the danger of facing too strong opponents. Because of the seeding Africans could not be drawn against the lowrated North/Central-Americans. This caused that they are considered to have the most difficult program. |
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G. Average
Rating Of First Round Opponents By African Starters
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents for the particular African starters are rated by Intertops (average values). Obviously there is an effect by the rating for the top-betted teams of the group, especially a Brazil-effect. A first idea suggests that Nigeria might be rated high themselves and this might cause the low rating for their opponents. See diagram H for more. |
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H. The same
diagram but without the groups top bets
In this diagram the topbets of each group (Brazil, Italy, France, Spain, England) are left out. This shows that Nigeria is considered easy opposition comes from the bookmakers do not consider Spain as strong as f.e. France. Morocco still is thought to have tough opposition, especially because of Norway. And Romania and Colombia are rated far higher. This partly comes from the draw, Romania was the original top seed while England, the now toprated team of that group was only a second-seat. Cameroon is clearly given the most chances to reach the second round what opposition is concerned. |
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