World Cup 98 - A Preview - AN AFRICAN CHAMPION?
 
WORLD CUP 98 PREVIEW is part of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
  world cup 98 site map
 
 
Looking at the figures, Africa seems on the way down instead of up. What the diagram means, what The Shot... thinks about the African five, why Africa can no way have 4 semi-finalists, and more, tells this essay... 

GO

 
 
 

 
 
 

 
 1994 has been the worst World Cup for Africa since 1974, considering the winning percentage (wins/game with draw=0.5 win). Nigeria made it to the last 16 but Cameroon fell apart in arguments over player bonusses and suspensions while Morocco played quite fine but harmless. Africa had been predicted a golden future but suddenly the upswing seemed broken.  Then came the Olympics 1996 and confirmed those who promised the Africans a World championship. Now, short before the World Cup, the same Nigerians become thrashed in pre-World Cup friendlies. Africa a chameleon?  Which colour will we see this time?  
 Putting the phenomina under closer examination, it can be seen that much can be explained and that Africa should not do as bad as feared and not as good as dreamed... 
 First it is recommended to read the document Football 2001 - Visions: Golden Eagles - Will there be an African World Champion soon? 
 
 
Africa - A chameleon?
Xpart1 part2 part3
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
 Here you will find a more detailed look at  
-Europe's and in particular Germanys view on African football 
-The progress Africa has made in the last three decades. Some points  
-What are the problems of today. Is Africa on the way up or on the way down? 
-plus a preview made before the qualification actualised in this document here 
  
A short summary
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 So you might have read that Africa has made huge progress in the basic knowledge of the game, has an army of well educated players, educated and shaped into form in the professional clubs of Europe. You might have read that in the same time Africas general problems are reflected in the problems of the football (associations) south of the Sahara, and while Europes associations further progessed, in Africa there has been a stagnation in infrastructural questions. The exodus of players has built a class of travelling players that manage an African interpretation of the European game. They include some of a new generation that was already born f.e. at France and then decide to play for the country of their roots. But when they turn home for their National teams they face other problems than in Europe. 

 No question, Africas way up will continue. But the set back caused by the political and economical situation will slow down the process. What will boost Africas chances on the other hand is that the share of starters has increased from 6% until 1978 to 15,6% 1998. This just makes it almost three times as likely an African team will come through as it has been once then. Simply for mathematical reasons, unregarding the strength of the teams. 
 

 
Africa - A chameleon?
part1 Xpart2 part3
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
   
The African Cup Of Nations 1998 (if you have time, try a look at the complete documentation of the tournament) has shown that, while the top has stagnated, smaller football nations had been able to entry with a competible force. And what had been the most remarkable, it had been teams consisting on home based players. 
  
 Of course, once successful, they will end up in Europe soon, where more is payed in third and fourth divisions as at home in first. Then new problems emerge. Consistency is almost impossible. Travelling home for single matches, one, two tired training sessions, matches on worse pitches under conditions that are far from what used to at Europe, some holiday feeling being home, new concepts about the game in the heads of players who feel like knowing more now about the game than the home based players, coaches, and authorities. Instead of a unit you have 11 better educated but worse cooperating individuals. 

a tricky deatail of the mode: Africa can only have 3 semi-finalists

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 All this becomes different at France. Three of the five arrive with fresh experiences from the last World Cup. Before such a big tournament the teams have the chance to prepare concentrated and will reach a higher level of cooperation. But all this cannot be applied in the same way for all the African five participiants. They are far too different. We have to take a closer look at the particular teams... 

 But, halt, first we take a look at a tricky detail of the mode: Africa can only have 3 semi-finalists!  
 Africa starts with five teams as South America does. But while South America can make it theoretically to four semi-finalists, Africas maximum is three! Why this?  
 It is caused by the schedule and the draw that realised the distribution of the teams on the groups. Of each half, groups A-D and groups E-H, two teams qualify for the semi-finals. But Africas teams are distributed 4:1. The 4 African teams in groups A-D cannot produce more than two semi-finalists.  
 

 
Africa - A chameleon?
part1 part2 Xpart3
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
 Leaving the strength of the opponents aside, an easy calculation may help to investigate on whether this is a real disatvantage. The 4:1 distribution means, that the chance for one semi-final place is 2*(4/16)+2*(1/16)=10/16. The other possible distribution, 3:2 distribution had meant 2*(3/16)+2*(2/16)=10/16, just the same. As said, this leaves the strength of the teams aside, treating them all as same strong. (To be correct, the example can be calculated more complicated, but the final result is the same) 

 The disatvantage is disatvantage and atvantage in the same time when it comes to the calculation of the propects for only one semi-finals place. When South Africa would meet Nigeria in the first play-off round it means one team out without losing to an European or American or Asian, but on the other hand it means one African automatically qualified for quarter finals. But for more semi-final places and thus in overall it turns to a disatvantage. 
  
 Now to the teams. 

Morocco & Co - The five teams

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

  
Morocco  

 Morocco had been the favorite for the African Cup Of Nations 1998. But their last match came in quarter finals when they were beaten by a couple of individual strike actions of opponents South Africa. Dominating in midfield they could not profit from this superiority.  
 This shows very good the problem of Morocco. A sophisticated style of play but no explosion upfront. By the same tempo and elegance they play all over the the field they try to carry the ball into the goal. But the opponents know where Morocco wants to go. If they open their defences, Morocco will have a chance, if they play solid defence, Morocco will have difficulties to score. 
 In qualification matches at Africa Morocco, much better prepared, easily profits against unorganised defences by the combination style. But when opponents are better prepared, the problems start. 
 

 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five: X Morocco 
Cameroon   South Africa  
Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
 In World Cup 94 they already had played a fine ball but were incapable to score. One of their most conspicious forwards then, Bahja, did not improve enough and is missing for disciplinary reasons this time. But the team undisputedly has improved and features rich talent in midfield (Hadji, Chiba, Chippo). And some European opponents, traditionally England and Germany, seem to have difficulties when playing against North Africans. Scotland could be one of them, but the encounter is Morocco's last group match and Morocco has to collect  points before.  
 At a test against a medium motivated Brazilian squad last autumn Morocco had a huge number of opportunities but lacked killer instinct again. Brazil finally late decided the match easily. This leaves the first match against Norway as probably most critical one for the Morocco fate. 
  
Cameroon in group B
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
Cameroon  

 Cameroon has had all those adventures that to Europeans appear as a (typical African) 'desease'. One could also say, they are a bit chaotic. Whatever the national team has been exposed to in the recent years was poorly organized. Arguing over player bonusses is the most important, then come repairing the problems that occur from forgotten documents or unpaid travel costs. And on the pitch, apart from those distractions, the famous coaching inconsitency finds its representation. 
  

 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco 
  Cameroon Xpart1 part2
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 This culminated in their 1994 World Cup desaster, when a 42 year old Roger Milla had to save at least a little part of their reputation, and a disappointing 1996 Nations Cup becoming thrashed by the hosts after another ill-preperation adventure. 
 So far the negative klischees. Here comes why Cameroon is a real candidate for whatever: They made the best out of their coaching inconcistency when hiring who seems to be exactly the right man for the situation: Claude Leroy, who had been coaching Cameroon already in the 80's and never has lost contact to Africa. He knows France, European football, and as former Paris St.Germain manager even the problems caused by bothering player agents.   

Cameroons experience and fighting spirit

 
 
 
 
 
 

  
Cameroon (2) 
  
 Cameroon has gathered a lot of experience now. It is the fourth World Cup since they arrived on world stage first in 1982. And the players of 1994 should have learned a lot from the failure like the Association officials. Songo'o and Omam-Biyick are the older ones, but also Kalla, Song, and Tchami have experienced the desaster. They will seek a better result this time, trying to fulfil the metapher of Claude Leroy: Cameroon are the Germans of Africa, they give everything to win. Unfortunately, one of their best, Foe broke his leg during the preperations but this team should be on the way up, not down. 
 They will have to reach a better cooperational level than at Burkina Faso, where they merely played as a collection of quite strong individuals. 
 
 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco 
  Cameroon part1 Xpart2
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 A problem for them as for some African teams seems goalkeeping. A keeper mistake caused their defeat at Burkina Faso against Congo in the quarter finals. Before it had been a foggy situation who had decided on benching Songo'O with some interference even by Roger Milla who had been watching the matches in no official function. 
 Cameroon has been drawn into a group that leaves them three quite open matches which can result in any way. The Europeans might fit better to them than Chile with their two most brilliant strikers Salas and Zamorano, but this is just a guess. They might play the same strong but with no luck ending with no win, or they might be lucky and advance to the second round. But they should not be expected to do as bad as 94.  

South Africa faces the hosts

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

  
South Africa  

 South Africa once had been the darlings of the European press, after impressive home matches against the world big and winning the African Cup Of Nations 1996 at home. But from then on they were on the way down. Their blend of African and European elements based strongly on the particular team that became old and especially away from home had no impact.  
 After a disappointing Intercontinental Cup, coach Clive Barker was fired and Jomo Sono, who took over, travelled with a completely changed team to the African Cup Of Nations at Burkina Faso 1998. Beginning slowly but unbeaten, they marched through to the finals, impressing with individual abilities. Their strength was not cooperation but the force of individual players. Their tempo changes were another conspicious property. In the final then they were entirely dominated by a perfect Egypt squad and those players who had made impact before suddenly looked harmless. 
 

 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa Xpart1 part2
Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 After the tournament they hired Phillippe Troussier, 'le sorcier blanc' as new coach. Troussier, famous in West Africa for his transformation of teams to almost invincible squads, had been in South Africa once before when he had coached Orlando Pirates but then had to leave after difficulties with the press and players. One of his problems is, he is french native speaker and had his big successes in French speaking countries. Another one is, he is another European coming from outside telling the just emancipating black South Africans how to do it.  
  
Troussiers problems
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
South Africa (2)  

 This became especially problematic after Somos success in Burkina Faso and the problem increased when Troussier decided to call up some new European players, born in South Africa, but since birth living in Europe and with hardly any ties to South Africa. More problems with the press followed after an incident that was said to be a scuffle with a newspaper man. 
 Troussier still profits from the reputation he earned when he brought the former outsiders Burkina Faso into semi-finals at the Nations Cup. But he is not as willingly believed in at South Africa as he was at Burkina Faso, the football minnows, where he arrived as a gift, as a 'messias' (S.Traoré, Burkinabé player) for a team without any believe before. In South Africa he faces a press and many officials with an own opinion. 
 

 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa part1 Xpart2
Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 Those problems seem to become less focussed on as South Africa approaches the tournament. But as Nigeria and Morocco they look to have scoring problems althouth their attack features emerging star Bendedict McCarthy and one of the most succesful Africans in Italian Serie A, Phil Masinga, who plays at Bari. A too defensive attitude might endanger their prospects. All in all they seem in better shape now but their fate is hard to predict. 
 In the first match they are playing against favorites France. In this match, one of the first matches and against the hosts, refereeing might be an unsure thing, and the red card question might become a severe problem for the agressively tackling South Africans. In the second match Denmark is the team South Africa should try to collect points against before in the third match they have to overcome their problems with Arabian/Asian teams when they face Saudi-Arabia. 
  
Nigeria
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
  
Nigeria 

best information sources on Internet about the SuperEagles: the brilliant Super Eagles page from Sweden and this Super Eagles page for the World Cup

 Inconsistency is the key word for the Nigerian Super Eagles. Often their ban from the Nations Cup is mentioned when it comes to the reasons for the Nigerian problems. But it has also been the inconsistency in the associations decisions about coaching. 
 When winning the Olympics, they had the basis for everything: the team, the system, and probably the coach, too. After that they went with two different coaches through their 6 qualification matches (without playing any other serious internationals) and although qualified very early, wasted more time before they finally appointed another successor.  
 In the end it had come down to two candidates: One was 1996 Atlanta coach Jo Bonfrere, familiar with the team already since he was assisting 1994 World Cup coach Clemens Westerhof.   
 

 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
South Africa 
 Nigeria Xpart1 part2
Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 The other candidate got the job. Bora Milutinovic stands for experience from three World Cups with three different teams and mentalities. But his time has been short and he implied yet another system. In this situation Nigerai is not alone. For South Africa and Cameroon the builing-up advantage of having played the Nations Cup has been made smaller by the fact they changed their coaches afterwards.   
 In the same time a team like Germany has worked for years with the same coach. The players know exactly what he expects, they play in a familiar framework the team can built up now on more complex interpretations. Nigeria again starts from scratch.  
  
Nigeria (2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 

  
Nigeria (2) 
  
 Anyway, World Cup preperations offer some time to improve. And this time has been short. Scaring looked the harmlessness in recent friendlies, when Nigeria could not create danger in front of the opponents goals. That Nigeria is not famous for its defence is nothing new, but they have not been able to control the game in those matches as they had been in most matches at the Olympics. At Atlanta they also overcame goals they conceded by lack of concentration. They were scoring three goals in regular time against both, Brazil and Argentina. Will more experienced defences allow this at France?  
 Another fear is goalkeeping. Nigeria has lost the best two goalkeepers to injuries and the replacements looked odd, for example when corners or centers came in front of the goal. A goalkeeper does not necessarily need to win matches but he definitively should not lose them. 
 So far the negative suggestions out of the thrashings in the preperation matches.  
 
 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
South Africa 
 Nigeria part1 Xpart2
Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 But fans of Nigeria, do not worry. Those preperation matches do not mean too much. First of all, Nigeria has played teams whose style traditionally was very succesful in the few matches against West- and Central African football. Second point: It is always better to come from behind with room to improve. Teams, in form too early, later usually come into difficulties and doubts. And Nigeria might not have want to show their true faces anyway. All typical problems should become continiously smaller after the matches have started. It has to be hoped their confidence is not damaged too much.  If the decision for coach, system, and ideology becomes subject to discussion and this takes over the Nigerian minds, they should fail. But if the team is physically fit and gains belief, they will be a serious contender. 
  
in group G plays Tunisia
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
Tunisia 

 Because of the disappointing Nations Cup appearance Tunisia has long been considered as the weakest African contender. Tunisia is a typical North African team. They arrive thoroughly prepared, their game is based on a solid defence and their attacking game lures to profit from disorganised defences or standard situations. This works well in African qualifiers but on final tournament stage their opponents will be similar organised and Tunisia suddenly has to decide matches by their skills. Here they went out at the 1996 Olympics without impact.  
 At the Nations Cup 1998 the style was successful again but they did not please the critics. In penalty shoot-out in quarter-finals they finally lost to the hosts Burkina Faso. The difference to their surprise success two years before? In that year they had won the penalty shoot-out at the same stage of the tournament.  
 

 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria 
 X Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
  
 With the return of Adel Sellimi to the team it seems to have gained the momentum it needed. Guided by master tactician Henry Kasperczak they should not be as chanceless as thought. Their group seems to fit them not as bad as most experts say. England traditionally has problems with North Africans and thus has arranged a practice match against Morocco and maybe thought of the Tunisia encouter as well when playing Saudi-Arabia at Wembley. In the Englans-match Tunisia should seek their chance with dangerous Ben Slimane and Zoubeir Beya who might have gained confidence by their fresh promotion (June 3rd!, they were granted to play for their club) with German club Freiburg to Bundesliga. At least the match against Colombia seems quite open as well. It is not big, but the opportunity is there. 
  
diagrams and figures showing more
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

  
Diagrams and figures 
A B 
C D
E F
G H
 
 
  Africa - A chameleon?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
X Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 
A. How Africa did in their best phase 82-90 
The following table is taken from the document How Africa was put at disatvantage at World Cups until 1994 from The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net archives. It gives an introduction how tables and statistics can deceive and it proves by mathematical evidence that Africa had deserved more places at the World Cup already much earlier.  
In this table you can see the winning percentage (win per game played, draw is 0.5) of all intercontinental matches (Europe vs. Africa, Europe vs. Asia etc.) played at World Cup finals 1982-1990. (Taking matches Europe vs. Europe into account would only shift the numbers closer to 0.500 because every win then is a loss, too).  
The good opinion on Africa obviously came with considerable delay.
                Games    W  T  L         Goals  pct. 
1.EUROPE          81    38 23 20        135-84  0.611 
2.SOUTH-AMER      49    21 13 15         67-56  0.561 
3.AFRICA          21     6  8  7         18-24  0.476 
4.NTH/CTL-AM      21     5  4 12         15-37  0.333 
5.ASIA            15     0  2 13         10-34  0.067 
6.AUSTR/OCEA       3     0  0  3          2-12  0.000
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
B. How Africas number of places improved 78-98 
Winning percentage is one story, advancing to the second round another. This is not a too valuable table because it consideres all teams as same strong. It implies the idea, if you have 10% of the teams starting you should participate at the teams making it to the next round with 10%, too. Above this line, the tournament was a success for you. You can see that Africa never reached that average line and is not predicted to this time as well. At France98 the idea would require 3 teams to make it to the second round. In that case it can be spoken of a breakthrough. 
year African starters 2nd round should see 2nd round saw saturation
1978 1/16 = 6.25% 0.5 teams 0 team 0%
1982* 2/24 = 8.33% 1 team 0 team 0%
1986 2/24 = 8.33% 1.33 teams 1 team 75%
1990 2/24 = 8.33% 1.33 teams 1 team 75%
1994 3/24 = 12.5 % 2 teams 1 team 50%
1998 5/32 = 15.6 % 2.5 teams predicted by bookmakers: 1.5 60%
*1982 has been played by a different mode. this causes the strange values 

Now the same game with the third round. This table only tells one thing already known: That Cameroon 1990 has been an outstanding success yet. 
year African starters 3rd round should see 2nd round saw saturation
1978 1/16 = 6.25% 0.25 teams 0 team 0%
1982* 2/24 = 8.33% 0.33 teams 0 team 0%
1986 2/24 = 8.33% 0.67 teams 0 team 0%
1990 2/24 = 8.33% 0.67 teams 1 team 133%
1994 3/24 = 12.5 % 1 team 0 team 0%
1998 5/32 = 15.6 % 1.25 teams predicted by bookmakers:0.66 53%
*1982 has been played by a different mode. this causes the strange values

A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
C. How Asia suddenly passed by Africa 1994 
The tendency for Africa is down when it comes to overall winning percentage. For the first time Asia passed them by 1994 with Saudi Arabia doing as good as Nigeria statistically. (CAF=African Confederation AFC=Asian Confederation). 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
D. How Africa is predicted to do 
Bookmakers count as the real experts. From the odds offered by the big betting offices one can derive a percentage, how likely a progress of a particular team is. More about this you will find in the essay 81% sure: Brasil will not become World Champions - says Intertops. A value of 20% reaching the second round for example means that if the World Cup was played 100 times about 20 times the team would make it to the second round.  
As you can see, Africa alltogether is predicted 1,5 places in the second round.  It seems not unlikely Africa might do better. It  surprises that Cameroon is ranked #2 but as we will see in diagrams G/H below, this comes because their opponents are ranked low. The North Africans are considered of less impact. By the way - Nigeria, due to FIFA world rankings is far the worst team of the tournament. 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
E. How the Confederations are predicted 
This is the diagram from the top. Like in the preceding diagram it is the predicted probability percentage for the teams taken from the bookmakers odds, accumulated for the continental confederations. (AFC=Asia, CAF=Africa, CONMEBOL=South-America, CONCACAF=Nth/Ctl-America, UEFA=Europe). UEFA has a value of more than 1000 percent for the second round. This means that if the tournament is played 100 times it is expected that an average of 10 European teams will advance from group matches.  This value of course no other continent can even theoretically reach, because no other confederation is granted as many places (The highest numbers are South America and Africa with 5).  
It springs to the eye that South America is considered much stronger with the same number of starters as Africa but this includes Brazil and Argentina.  
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
F. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By Continents 
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents are rated by Intertops (average values). It is obvious that the average value for first round opponents of South Americans (2,3 % to win the Cup) and Europeans (2,8%) is quite low. Their easy task has come from the fact that a certain percentage of their contigent was top-seeded before the draw and such excluded from the danger of facing too strong opponents. Because of the seeding Africans could not be drawn against the lowrated North/Central-Americans. This caused that they are considered to have the most difficult program. 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
G. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By African Starters 
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents for the particular African  starters are rated by Intertops (average values). Obviously there is an effect by the rating for the top-betted teams of the group, especially a Brazil-effect. A first idea suggests that Nigeria might be rated high themselves and this might cause the low rating for their opponents. See diagram H for more. 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
H. The same diagram but without the groups top bets 
In this diagram the topbets of each group (Brazil, Italy, France, Spain, England) are left out. This shows that Nigeria is considered easy opposition comes from the bookmakers do not consider Spain as strong as f.e. France. Morocco still is thought to have tough opposition, especially because of Norway. And Romania and Colombia are rated far higher. This partly comes from the draw, Romania was the original top seed while England, the now toprated team of that group was only a second-seat. Cameroon is clearly given the most chances to reach the second round what opposition is concerned. 
 
 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
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