about betting and African
Foootball
the difference between fractional
and decimal odds
tables: how the odds are changing
throughout the Nations Cup
2002 is not only the year of
Pay TV, African Nations Cup in various media, it is also the first time(?)
that (online) betting on the event is possible.
This is another important
step to put African competitions on the world map of football.
This is why The Shot has
decided to make a feature on betting although it has to be warned of the
dangers of obsession and financial losses. Especially when it is so easy
to bet from home with a mouseclick only.
Sportsbooks are the experts
of the game. They have to make good judgements before they give odds, because
wrong odds will become costly to them. Normally their odds are based not
only upon the knowledge of the teams but also upon statistical analysis.
The odds are in a relation
to a probability of an event as estimated by the company who offers the
bets.
This is why Sportsbooks
are a good basis for rankings of the teams.
The following odds are based
on Sportingodds who are doing a special on the African Nations Cup
and are offering special bets connected to this.
They provide The Shot users
with a special advertising link
and promise to offer you free bets if you use this link to open an account.
After the event it will be seen whether this is a possibility to further
expand the penetration of the African game into the world of football and
a possible support for the building of The-Shot.Net.
(The Shot has no experience
with betting with this company and is not responsable for the offered bets)
Attention: There are several
ways to display odds. Sportingodds is an English sportsbook and in
England it is more common to display in
fractional odds.
The Shot has converted those odds in the tables below into decimal
odds, which are more common in the rest of Europe.
What is the difference?
Fractional odds of 15/10
means: if you win the bet you will win 15, if you lose it you will lose
10. Of course it will depend on how much you stake. If you stake 1 you
will win 1.5 or lose that 1. If you stake 2 you will win 3 or lose that
2. etc.
Decimal odds will display
the same as 2.5. They are already considering your stake. It means the
return will be 2.5 times your stake but it will include your stake already.
So odds 15/10 and 2.5 are the same.
Some more examples
fractional |
decimal |
11/10 |
2.1 |
1/1 |
2 |
4/1 |
5 |
50/1 |
51 |
4/6 |
1.67 |
In reality decimal are nothing
else than fractional+1 (which is your stake)
The development of odds
for winning the Nations Cup after the first matches:
-Egypt and South Africa
quickly lost much of the pre tournament bonus. Too quickly?
-North Africans Morocco
and Tunisia were considered too strong, tournament outsiders DR Congo are
still in the race at quarter final stage.
|
before tourn. |
after 1 match |
after 2 m. |
after 3 m. |
after qf. |
Cameroon |
4 |
3,25 |
2,875 |
2,75 |
2,5 |
South Africa |
4,33 |
7,5 |
11 |
6,5 |
|
Nigeria |
5,5 |
3,75 |
4 |
3,5 |
2,75 |
Morocco |
6,5 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
Tunisia |
7 |
11 |
19 |
|
|
Senegal |
7,5 |
5 |
4,5 |
5 |
5 |
Egypt |
10 |
21 |
13 |
13 |
|
Côte d'Ivoire |
12 |
17 |
34 |
|
|
Togo |
34 |
41 |
51 |
|
|
Ghana |
41 |
34 |
26 |
17 |
|
Mali |
51 |
51 |
34 |
11 |
7 |
Zambia |
51 |
51 |
151 |
|
|
Liberia |
67 |
51 |
51 |
|
|
Algeria |
67 |
67 |
51 |
|
|
Burkina Faso |
101 |
67 |
81 |
|
|
DR Congo |
151 |
151 |
151 |
26 |
|
The derived likelihood
of a Nations Cup victory for the 16 teams after the sportsbooks assessments.
-Senegal quickly jumped
from position 6 to 3
-before quarter-finals:
three main classes of favorites. Egypt only in the last group.
|
before tourn. |
after 1 match |
after 2 m. |
after 3 m. |
after qf. |
Cameroon |
17,7% |
22,7% |
25,8% |
28,7% |
36,2% |
South Africa |
16,3% |
9,8% |
6,7% |
12,1% |
|
Nigeria |
12,8% |
19,7% |
18,6% |
22,5% |
32,9% |
Morocco |
10,9% |
7,4% |
9,3% |
|
|
Tunisia |
10,1% |
6,7% |
3,9% |
|
|
Senegal |
9,4% |
14,8% |
16,5% |
15,8% |
18,1% |
Egypt |
7,1% |
3,5% |
5,7% |
6,1% |
|
Côte d'Ivoire |
5,9% |
4,3% |
2,2% |
|
|
Togo |
2,1% |
1,8% |
1,5% |
|
|
Ghana |
1,7% |
2,2% |
2,9% |
4,6% |
|
Mali |
1,4% |
1,4% |
2,2% |
7,2% |
12,9% |
Zambia |
1,4% |
1,4% |
0,5% |
|
|
Liberia |
1,1% |
1,1% |
1,5% |
|
|
Algeria |
1,1% |
1,4% |
1,5% |
|
|
Burkina Faso |
0,7% |
1,1% |
0,9% |
|
|
DR Congo |
0,5% |
0,5% |
0,5% |
3,0% |
|
|