The 3-match group format
has the following tricky mathematical properties:
a) the minimal points
possible to advance: 2 (!)
If one team beats all the
others and the other three all draw with each other, points are distributed
the following: 9-2-2-2
b) the maximum points
possible to be sent home with: 6 (!)
If one team loses all matches
and the other three beat each other the following: A beats B, B beats C,
C beats A, points are distributed the following: 6-6-6-0
remark: this is a similar
case to the one, Algeria suffered from at the 1982 World Cup.
c) going home undefeated:
1) one team loses all, matches,
the other three draw with each other. Point distribution: 5-5-5-0.
2) two or four teams end
up with 3 draws each. Point distribution: 5-3-3-2 (Cameroon at the World
Cup 1982 were the victims), or 3-3-3-3 (all group matches end with a draw).
3) one team ends up with
3 draws but none of the other matches end with a draw: Point distribution:
7-4-3-1 or 4-4-4-3
4) one team (A) ends up
with 3 draws, B and C draw and both beat D: Point distribution: 5-5-3-1
d) advancing without winning
a match:
1) one team wins all, matches,
the other three draw with each other. Point distribution: 9-2-2-2.
2) two or four teams end
up with 3 draws each. Point distribution: 5-3-3-2, or 3-3-3-3 (all group
matches end with a draw).
3) one team (A) ends up
with 3 draws, B and C draw and both lose to D: Point distribution: 7-3-2-2
e) losing two matches
and advancing anyway:
One team wins all three
matches and the other beat each other A beats B, B beats C, C beats A.
Point distribution: 9-3-3-3
f) If there is a draw
in at least one of the four matches of the first two days in the group:
At least on one of the two
teams to advance will not be decided upon before the third match.
Even for a team with only
one draw and a loss there will be always a theoretical szenario of advancing
before the last match.
A team that has not won
both matches, cannot be qualified for the next round before the third match.
g) The most boring case:
Two teams have 6 points,
the other two 0 points after the first two matches. The final match only
decides on first and second place of the group. (France 98, group H with
Argentinia and Croatia).
h) After two matches:
A team can be eliminated when losing the first two matches, depending on
the outcome of the others.
If at least one of the other
two other matches has ended with a draw, they will have to go home.
Otherwise it depends on
who has beaten whom.
i) After two matches:
A team can have reached second round winning the first two matches, depending
on the outcome of the others.
If at least one of the other
two other matches has ended with a draw, they are through.
Otherwise it depends on
who has beaten whom.
j) A problem case:
One teams is already 1st
place for sure after two matches (a 3-point-rule implication). They have
nothing to play for (in opposition to a team that is out after 2 matches
who at least play for pride). It happens when one team wins both matches
and the other two matches end in a draw. Point distribution: 6-2-1-1. Morocco
and Spain at France 98 can tell you a story here: Brazil and Nigeria lost
their last matches in rather lacklustre performances against Norway and
Paraguay.
France and Portugal in Euro
2000 fielded a second string team. What at first triggered protests from
the other teams turned out to be the right choice: for the reserve it was
'their' big game. Playing with 100% commitment they defeated their opponents.
k) The critical 3rd match
The African Cup Of
Nations 1998 shown: There is a special critical third match situation.
No group had been
decided before the last match. This last match such became a kind of play-off
match, but with a different, tricky situation: Some teams had to go into
the matches, defending their positions. They needed only to keep the score
even, achieve a draw against opponents who wanted to win. This played a
role in succession of the matches when those favorites were pushed more
and more backwards and in two matches a late goal conceded left them no
time to strike back. Ghana and Guinea were eliminated because of this.
Recent tournaments
have shown that teams who could approach the third match relaxed, already
qualified, seemed to benfit from this later. You might argue with this
interpretation: The team might have just been so strong.
Another point is the
succesiion in which the teams play the prime team, of the group. This often
gives an edge to the team who plays this prime team third. Think of Norway
and Paraguay in Frnce 98 who advanced not at last thanks to playing Brazil
and Nigeria when those already were qualified.
l) The critical 1st match
No World Champions
have lost their opening match. |