| > World Cup 2002 Korea Japan Special Index |
| Sportsbooks are the
experts of the game. They have to make good judgements before they give
odds, because wrong odds will become costly to them. Normally their odds
are based not only upon the knowledge of the teams but also upon statistical
analysis.
The odds are in an inverse relation to a probability of an event as estimated by the company who offers the bets. (Of course minus a margin which is the income of the offering company). This is why Sportsbooks are a good basis for rankings of the teams. In our example bewlow the first table displays the development of odds from before the draw. The second one the derived probabilities of each team to win the cup as thought by the bookmakers. The effect of the draw is clear: As pointed out in the feature about the seeding and the draw the 32 teams are divided into an assumed heavier half with Argentina, France, Brazil, etc. from which only one team can advance to the final and a second apparently easier half from which the second finalist will come. This shift of odds is immediately visible: the chances for Argentina, France, Brazil, England, Nigeria were assessed lower, the odds rose, while the chances for Italy, Spain Germany, Portugal, and Cameroon were seen as better now, their odds sank. In the half year between
then and now more developments took place. The poor preperation results
odf Saudi Arabia and China had its impact as did the changes on the minds
regarding Brazil. France odds probably had to be adjusted to prevent the
customers from overbetting on one team.
|
| before the draw | after the draw | before the tournament | ||
| Argentina | CONMEBOL | 4,5 | 5 | 5,5 |
| France | UEFA | 5,5 | 6 | 4 |
| Brazil | CONMEBOL | 8 | 9 | 6,5 |
| England | UEFA | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| Italy | UEFA | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Spain | UEFA | 13 | 9 | 7,5 |
| Germany | UEFA | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| Portugal | UEFA | 17 | 12 | 15 |
| Nigeria | CAF | 34 | 51 | 67 |
| Cameroon | CAF | 41 | 34 | 26 |
| Paraguay | CONMEBOL | 41 | 51 | 81 |
| Sweden | UEFA | 41 | 67 | 81 |
| Poland | UEFA | 51 | 67 | 81 |
| Russia | UEFA | 51 | 51 | 67 |
| Belgium | UEFA | 67 | 51 | 101 |
| Croatia | UEFA | 67 | 67 | 81 |
| Danmark | UEFA | 67 | 126 | 101 |
| Ireland | UEFA | 67 | 67 | 101 |
| Japan | AFC | 67 | 67 | 81 |
| Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 67 | 81 | 101 |
| Ecuador | CONMEBOL | 81 | 101 | 151 |
| Mexico | CONCACAF | 81 | 81 | 151 |
| South Africa | CAF | 81 | 101 | 401 |
| Turkey | UEFA | 81 | 101 | 81 |
| Korea | AFC | 101 | 67 | 151 |
| Senegal | CAF | 101 | 201 | 151 |
| Slovenia | UEFA | 101 | 151 | 251 |
| USA | CONCACAF | 126 | 151 | 301 |
| Costa Rica | CONCACAF | 151 | 201 | 401 |
| Tunisia | CAF | 151 | 251 | 501 |
| China | AFC | 201 | 251 | 751 |
| Saudi Arabia | AFC | 251 | 301 | 751 |
| before the draw | after the draw | before the tournament | ||
| Argentina | CONMEBOL | 16,9% | 15,3% | 13,8% |
| France | UEFA | 13,8% | 12,7% | 18,9% |
| Brazil | CONMEBOL | 9,5% | 8,5% | 11,7% |
| England | UEFA | 9,5% | 7,0% | 6,3% |
| Italy | UEFA | 9,5% | 12,7% | 12,6% |
| Spain | UEFA | 5,9% | 8,5% | 10,1% |
| Germany | UEFA | 4,5% | 6,4% | 4,5% |
| Portugal | UEFA | 4,5% | 6,4% | 5,1% |
| Nigeria | CAF | 2,2% | 1,5% | 1,1% |
| Cameroon | CAF | 1,9% | 2,2% | 2,9% |
| Paraguay | CONMEBOL | 1,9% | 1,5% | 0,9% |
| Sweden | UEFA | 1,9% | 1,1% | 0,9% |
| Poland | UEFA | 1,5% | 1,1% | 0,9% |
| Russia | UEFA | 1,5% | 1,5% | 1,1% |
| Belgium | UEFA | 1,1% | 1,5% | 0,8% |
| Croatia | UEFA | 1,1% | 1,1% | 0,9% |
| Danmark | UEFA | 1,1% | 0,6% | 0,8% |
| Ireland | UEFA | 1,1% | 1,1% | 0,8% |
| Japan | AFC | 1,1% | 1,1% | 0,9% |
| Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 1,1% | 0,9% | 0,8% |
| Ecuador | CONMEBOL | 0,9% | 0,8% | 0,5% |
| Mexico | CONCACAF | 0,9% | 0,9% | 0,5% |
| South Africa | CAF | 0,9% | 0,8% | 0,2% |
| Turkey | UEFA | 0,9% | 0,8% | 0,9% |
| Korea | AFC | 0,8% | 1,1% | 0,5% |
| Senegal | CAF | 0,8% | 0,4% | 0,5% |
| Slovenia | UEFA | 0,8% | 0,5% | 0,3% |
| USA | CONCACAF | 0,6% | 0,5% | 0,3% |
| Costa Rica | CONCACAF | 0,5% | 0,4% | 0,2% |
| Tunisia | CAF | 0,5% | 0,3% | 0,2% |
| China | AFC | 0,4% | 0,3% | 0,1% |
| Saudi Arabia | AFC | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,1% |
| Attention: There are
several ways to display odds.
Sportingodds is an English sportsbook and in England it is more common to display in fractional odds. The Shot has converted those odds in the tables below into decimal odds, which are more common in the rest of Europe. What is the difference?
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