| check also
for a detailed look at the performance of Asians
and Africans.
HARMLESSNESS
IN ATTACK
Our seven outsiders had scored
only 6 goals in their first 14 matches. Taking a look at more teams, USA,
Cameroon, South Africa, and Tunisia, further displays the problem: 3 goals
in the first 8 matches, 7 in all 12. This had been terrible because it
seems to reflect overcareful, anxious attitudes that might have spoiled
the campaigns.
THE CAR
RACING METAPHER
Imagine, you run a racing car
team. If your car is worse than the best ones, you will try to find a clever
racing strategy to beat the others (in Formula 1 it is for example the
number of pit stops or the selection of the tyre type). You will have to
try something different to be able to overcome the others superiority.
The other way round, if your
car is better than the others, it is stupid to take chances. Because if
you run the same strategy as the other teams you will win the race anyway
because your car is superior. Unless there are mistakes or accidents or
any kind of chance.
The message is clear: Going
as an outsider into the game you can either take chances or you can conservatively
try to keep the margin close, and only hope for some kind of accident in
the outcome of the match (this can include an unconcentrated performance
of the favorite as well).
Now why do most coaches act
different? The taking chances implies the possibility of the total desaster.
This immediately points on the coach. He must have been 'a fool to try
something silly like this'. A conservative approach on the other hand points
at the players. The coach had planned professionaly and the players just
had been too bad.
NO CONFIDENCE?
They did not force it, they
waited for the lucky bounce. While Mexico had gained confidence by bravely
carrying the action into the opponents half, Japan for example right 'officially'
speculated on a point in one of the first matches and a win against Jamaica.
But despite their very good football the Japanese came only a few times
dangerous in front of the goal. Then the Japanese seemed to panic. Those
goal situations their counterparts Battistuta and Suker had had a hundred
times in important matches and they remained cool. Japan then, without
much 'practice' from the first matches, squandered their opportunities
against Jamaica, lacking any surpreme ease. It must be tough for a forward,
preparing years for a tournament and then get only two or three goal situations,
a Saudi forward maybe only got one.
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1. outsiders: the past and France98 |
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2.
speculation about the reasons |
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part 1
part 2 |
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ACCEPTING
TO BE SO WEAK THAT LUCK CAN BE THE ONLY HELP?
It had not been that teams
like Iran or Saudi Arabia did not play the ball in direction of the opponents
goal but they attacked only with few players. They were anxious that the
matches resultwise stayed open and careful that their opponents would not
score on an easy counter-attack. Thus, bouncing balls in the Danish or
Yugoslavian half could seldom find Saudi Arabian or Iranian players and
the balls came right back. There are several points to watch:
How many players follow into
the attacking zone (few at Iran, Saudi-Arabia); how risky is the build-up
(Japan combinated more conservatively, Iran tried the special but had not
enough players upfront so that those risky balls were lost quickly again);
how is the build-up from defense when the opponents forwards imply pressing,
do we see long balls on the lonely attacker or do they try to build up
by combination; what is about pressing, how many players try to apply pressing
upfront, how tight are midfield players marked (you can conquer the ball
then but you can also become a victim of a quick move, outnumbering your
defenders), and how far drawn back is the defenders line when the opponents
build up.
Japan looked not much different
to Croatia or Argentina, but those had superior players (size of the Europeans!)
and especially Argentina worked concentrated so that if you want to win,
you will have to take chances. Japan twice waited for the last minutes
but did not have the luck to compensate for the first part of the matches.
Of course, this is easy to
say afterwards, as Korea seemed to have indeed taken some chances against
the Netherlands and paid for it. They failed to open up the score and after
the first dutch goal, they lost 0:5. (But Saudi-Arabia had lost 0:4, too,
with an exclusively defensive approach against France, whom they had invited
into an attacking practice session.) Also Mexico had been immediate victims
of a Dutch counter-play as well (the first goal). But they had gathered
so much confidence, that they achieved the impossible in the later stage
of the match.
Of course, Japan might have
just been a tick to weak and maybe some inches to small to win against
the big. Thye might have avoided a debacle when they draw back at the beginning
of the second half against Argentina. Iran faced a German team looking
for a high score because of the race for the first place in the group.
But different the Iran-Yugoslavia match. It seems a shame that Iran, whose
players, in opposite to the Japanese, are well-requested in the Bundesliga,
did not try to win this encounter when Yugolslavians obviously starting
to worry and blame each other, only seeking free kicks. It was sad, that
Saudi Arabia played without any confidence of being able to win a match.
They all seeked defending as long as possible the 0:0 and score a lucky
one.
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