World Cup 98 - Goal Fever vs. Goal Fear
 
WORLD CUP 98  is part of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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The Euro 96 and the African Cup Of Nations suggested some conclusions concerning goal/game average. This document investigates on developments in recent World Cup tournaments and compares them to what is happening at France 98. 

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Introduction: The conclusions of the recent big tournaments - déjà vu at the World Cup? 
  
 The goal scoring statistics Euro 96 and the African Cup Of Nations 1998 suggested some conclusions about the behaviour of the teams. But often such conclusions carry a share of overinterpretation with them. Let's take a look at those statistics, compare them with the recent World Cups and with what's happening at France 98. 

 At first Euro 96. This tournament saw tactical 'masterpieces' and thus goal scoring statistics should be considered as less accidental. In the following goal scoring statistics you can see that in the group matches the goal per game average was much higher than in the knock-out rounds.  
 
 		  
1. introduction + Euro 96 conclusions
2. conclusions from CAN* 1998
3. recent World Cups and France 98
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 *CAN = African Cup Of Nations (french Coupe d'Afrique des Nations) 
  
 One reason might be the 3 point rule. This made winning more valuable than not-losing. When quarter finals began, the idea of losing became much more scaring than before.  
 It could also be seen, that in the first matches of each group the teams seemed to have begun more careful. In the second matches the goal/game avg. rose and it reached its climax in the third matches when some teams had to try to come from behind. 
 
 
Euro 96 and all other diagrams: The play-off goal average is based on the result after 90 minutes to have a comparable value.
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Introduction (2): The African Cup Of Nations 1998 
  
 The African Cup Of Nations saw a rapid goal/game average beginning with the Nations Cup 1996. This tournament saw two reforms, both could be interpreted as reasons for the goal explosion. The first one was the extension from 12 to 16 teams (1996 only 15 teams because of the withdrawl of Nigeria). This might have brought some less competitive opponents to the tournament.  
 
 		  
1. introduction + Euro 96 conclusions
2. conclusions from CAN 1998
3. recent World Cups and France 98
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 The second reform was the 3-point-rule. This might have triggered more attacking play and indeed the matches have continously become more attractive concerning the point of playing-to-win vs. not-to-lose.  
 
 
goals/game increase in 1st round matches 1990-98 
African Cup Of Nations: is increasing goal number sign of change in attitude or was it caused by putting the qualification line lower when allowing more teams? note: until 1994 a win was only rewarded with 2 points, from 1996 on with 3. 
 
  
 Like at the Euro 96 the goal average sunk when play-offs began. It seemed especially the first play-off matches=the quarter finals that paralysed the attacking powers.  
 
 
  
 Like at the Euro 96, the first matches seemed to have been played more careful.  
 
 
African Cup Of Nations 1998:  
attacking in the first round, scared when play offs begin?
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The past World Cup and FRANCE 98: 
  
 It may be surprising but on World Cup level those conclusions do not get convincingly confirmed. You might still read from the numbers a certain carefulness in the first match. But only 1990 saw a decrease of goal average, when play-offs began. Also the idea that the first play-off match is approached the most careful of all does not find evidence as you can see in the diagram below.  
 Even the 3 point rule, applied since 1994, looks as if it only reestablished what had been there already 1986. Of course this only tells something about results not about attitude. 
 By the way, 1982 the goal average in first round matches was even higher. But as said, those figures should not get overinterpreted. Results like Hungarys 10:1 against El Salvador should be rather rare today when matches have become closer. This is another thread of the complex influences hiding behind those numbers. 
 
 		  
1. introduction + Euro 96 conclusions
2. conclusions from CAN 1998
3. recent World Cups and France 98
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 1998 now saw in the first matches a slightly lower scoring average than 94 what, despite high tempo favoring weather conditions might be caused by the careful attitude of most teams, especially the outsiders who do not really have seemed to believe in their chance in the first matches. Under pressure then from the second matches on, matches became more open. Also the favorites improved their 'machinery' (Argentina, Netherlands). 
 Heat is no argument towards only one side: It makes matches slower but also makes concentration on defence, positioning to show a compact formation, etc, more difficult. 
 
 
 
 
1998 sees a similar number of goals compared to the 1994 Cup yet, when there was more heat and the 3 point rule new. The 3rd place play-off and extra-time goals are not included.
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