No Asian Coming Out - A World Cup 98 Review

World Cup 98 - A Review - NO ASIAN COMING OUT

WORLD CUP 98 REVIEW is part of	THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
	world cup 98 site map

Asia was predicted 0.7* teams to advance to the next round by the experts of the betting offices and The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net even thought Asia to be underrated. The end was a single won match of 12 played and a huge setback as the teams never looked like being able to overcome the gap. What can be the reasons and what are the prospects in the future?

GO EAST

* 0.7 value is the accumulated probability for the 4 Asian teams to adavance. It means that it was considered a 70:30 chance, that at least one of the four would advance

Go East? Asia, yet a Cinderella short before the discovery? While Africa had been praised for their talent, Asia carried the myth of the diligent learners and workers. With Japan and Korea on the mind when making those associations, the time seemed to have come. Korea had gained experience at three consecutive World Cups and the Japanese had learned a lot in their home J-League, spiced with the best foreign influences. The other pole, Saudi Arabia, who might stand for the image of the elegant stars, also entered the tournement with fresh 1994 experiences and guided by the coach of the 1994 World Champions.

It has been a big disappointment. Asia returned to their image of harmlessness when at France 98 the four Asian participiants could only win one of 12 matches and even conceded their worst defeat in a match (Korea 0:5 vs. Netherlands) since 1954.

The World Cup 1994 seemed to have marked a turning point. The before harmless Asians had played better and more successful than the before praised Africans.
Once it had been North Korea who had eliminated Italy 1:0 in the final first round match 1966 and had almost surprised Eusebios's Portugal in the quarter finals (3:5 after leading 3:0).
But from 1978 on there had been a big difference in the success of Asian and African teams at the
final tournaments although often both were labelled as the same weak.

	1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
	Xpart1 part2
	2. The Iranian fairytale
	3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
	4. Diagrams and figures telling more
	back to top

Many experts had spoken of the 'small' football nations had closed the gap. It is true that knowledge about the basics of the game has improved everywhere in the world, not at last because television has conquered the space of visual experiences and has been delivering almost daily samples to learn from. Especially African players have played in Europe and been able to pass on their knowledge. Because of the shortage of European based professionals, Asia had to go a different way. But in the meantime football in the 'old' football world has further improved as well:
Technical facilities, new methods, improvement on the medical sector, devices to improve the physis, new tactics, the new concept of a team consistsing of 22 instead of 11 players, a higher number of special coaches, etc, it all has made the football especially in Europe stronger as well. Also Europeans do not tend to be complacant anymore towards the small teams when the press is their necks every minute and each match is also a display for the market in a time when an average career sees more different club names than ever before.

A disillusioning World Cup for Asia?

It might be too much interpretation, but one reason might be exactly this parallel improvement in Asia (,Africa) and Europe. All Asians, more or less, played a football of European (since football is influenced from South America as well and tends to some unversial styles anyway better to be called universal) school, but not very modern or any innovative. More or less they played a football from the second European level. No risk, no offside trap, playing in direction to the opponents goal but always in an order of players that did not take chances.
Korea and especially Japan had to overcome a physical problem when the opponents (esp. Jamaica and Croatia) were far bigger (body) and it was impossible to outplay them in one-to-one situations. Japan was making far too many shots from distances that are fitting well to Europeans but for the unexperienced and small Japanese players produced only inaccurate or weak shots.
On one hand the European and South-American opponents were shown a familar, an orthodox face with nothing surprising about, on the other hand the players lacked just a little impact to be able to catch up with the big. Some mistakes added.
Also the Asians could not benefit from any complacency as there wasn't any. And when two teams meet, with similar tactics (or startegies), physical and psychological fitness, the superior players usually decide the match (or luck of course).
This might have been a reason that most results at this World Cup reflected the strength of the indivdual players of the teams and produced the expected results. Where it did not (Nigeria, Paraguay, Mexico), tactics/strategy/attitude had been different.

	1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
	part1 Xpart2
	2. The Iranian fairytale
	3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
	4. Diagrams and figures telling more
	back to top

Especially because Korea and Saudi Arabia had gained experience in the past and thought themselves on the way up, this World Cup must have been disillusioning. And Japan, who considered themselves to be at least favorites against Jamaica, it must have been frustating to lose even the third match.
The worst that can happen to Asia after this tournament is pessismism. And the danger exists. A pessimistic view could emerge linked to the economical crisis in Asia. The talent in the Japanese squad proved there is more added to Japanese game than just learning, running, or discipline, what are the favored western klischees for the country. And the fan culture is another sign for the creativity also inherit in the Asian game. China will push forward for sure and the success of the Iranian professionals in Germany might show the way for some middle east players (although the Iranian mentality is a little different).
A big problem will be the number of places at the next World Cup. More experience is needed everywhere, but two places (hosts Japan and Korea) are already gone. To have Iran another chance and China a first one would be very good for the Asian game. But that means out for the rest. Stamina is requested here. And some success on youth and junior level, that had been there once (Kuweit etc.) but has not led to success at the big World Cup. The reasons for this have to be examined as well and compared to contrasting examples like Yugoslavia/Croatia.

the performance of the particular teams

The Iranian fairytale

Although they have not been able to stage the big surprise, Iran is an outstanding, talented team. They cannot be looked at the same way as Japan or Korea. The Iranian players are almost haunted by Bundesliga managers. Most of the players are attached the image of competitive athlets, intelligent players, skillful technicians, and even quite serious workers. Their striker Ali Daei next year will play Champions League with Bayern Munich and Khoadad Azizi left a better impression at the World Cup than Thomas Hässler or Krassimir Balakov. But the most wanted man is 21 year old Mehdi Mahdavikia on the right lane.
While others have general deficits, the Iranian team lacks most of tactical and psychological problems produced by two decades of isolation. If they can establish structures to discover and bring out the rich talent they will be a force to be reckoned with in the future. Their biggest problem here is to overcome several successive times the Asian qualification what is an eye of a needle and requires some luck to slip through.

	1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
	2. The Iranian fairytale
	Xpart1 part2
	3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
	4. Diagrams and figures telling more
	back to top

At France it was all about gaining experience although it could have been more. They were only the fourth Asian qualifier but Iran were indeed the only Asian team to win a match. This shows that teams do not perform the same well when they are taken a level higher where different things count. In reverse it shows that teams that might have done better sometimes might have failed in the qualification.
The Iranian story has been a football fairytale. What the Iranian professionals have done for the Iranian image in Germany that had been ridden by the usual klischees is hard to describe. It has been maybe even as big as what the integration of African star players in Bundesliga has been able to move. It depends of course on how the story will go on.
But also there has been a huge impact inside the country. Football has given the people a positive perspective about life. And the victory against the United States might even have taken momentum from reactionary powers that saw themselves in contraposition to the football enthusiasm. The encounter itself braught a message of the American president to Iran and might have made a better relationship easier.
No myths here. There are examples in history where matches brought positive effect but there are also examples for negative effect. The expatriation of players seems more effective in the positive way at this stage.

Away from politics - on to the field...

Iran (2)

But to go away from politics: The Iranians had decided to make an abrupt change in coaching short before the World Cup. They replaced Croatian Ivic by Iranian Jalal Talebi, who lives in the United States (Talebi: 'where is the problem?'). Unlike Saudi-Arabia and the Africans they mistrusted the cooperation of the foreign expert with the mentality of the players and considering their success in relation to those mentioned they do not seem to have been wrong. Compared to what was expected Iran did not bad.
But it could have been better. Iran, that had displayed before weakness in defence but enourmous attacking potential started all their three matches very carefully.
Drawn back deep in their half they attacked only with Azizi and Daei. They were many long balls to the head of Ali Daei but there were no Iranian players to collect the bouncing balls in the opponents half. So the balls came right back. More dangerous were counterattempts on the outer lanes especially when #2 Mehdi Mahdavikia was involved.
It can be said that winning the USA match by this strategy involved also some luck as the Americans hit the goal frame two or three times. Anyway it was a good match by the Iranians.
In the other two encounters they did not want to risk the long-established 0-0 and so they became punished.
Especially the Yugoslavia match had been a match they might have had a chance. But the whole second period was played in the Iranian half.
The consequence was a huge number of free kicks around the Iranian penalty box when the Yugoslavian, already desperate to some extent and starting to blame each other, were seeking the referees whistle continously and finally succeeded.

	1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
	2. The Iranian fairytale
	part1 Xpart2
	3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
	4. Diagrams and figures telling more
	back to top

The goal came very late and so the time was too short to answer. Only one opportunity for Ali Daei in the final minutes. When in the second period the weakest phase of the Yugoslavian psyche could obviously been recognized the Iranians were happy with the draw and did not take the chance. A similar careful approach they played against Germany.

When now, after the World Cup, it seems clear that neither Germany nor Yugoslavia have been in best form it seems a pity, Iran did not play more risky. They feared the debacle after their problematic test matches and because of the lack of comparisons with the big in the past.
Next time, hopefully, they will show that they are a class better than still though by many.

The result: 1 win, 2 losses, winner of fair-play-classification after yellow and red cards per match (after L'equipe statistics) but most fouls of the first round, shared with Japan. This comes of the low time of ball possession because of the long ball counterplay strategy.
Best player (after L'equipe): #2 Mehdi Mahdavikia (6.33 points) what made him ranked #15 of all field players (#17 of all players) of the tournament after the first round, a rank he shared with 13 (15) others.

Due to statistics from france98.com Iran had only average 43% ball possession in the three matches. Less than 40% of the time they had ball possession they have been attacking. This has been the second worst value of all 32 teams. All opponents had over-average possession of the ball in the Iranian half. This shows that Iran attacked with only few players and lost the ball immediately.

the other three Asian starters

Saudi-Arabia, South Korea, Japan

Saudi-Arabia spent enormous sums. They hired the 'best' coach, the one that had coached the last World Champion Brazil, Carlos Albert Parreira, and they fired him after the second match. Parreira had also coached the United Arab Emirates 1990 and he had been the same unsuccesful.
The only match Saudi Arabia seemed to have unfolded their potential was the preperation match at Wembley some weeks before the tournament.
After the 1994 success Saudi Arabia had disappointed, and finally they had recalled the banned 1994 star Al Oweiran to the team. To have a chance to advance the first match was decisive. But Saudi Arabia played very careful. Maybe Parreira mistrusted the attacking potential and like all coaches who do not want their skill to become questioned, he did not take any chances. The result: no goals in the first two matches, almost no attempts on the target. One might say the red card against France was a blow, but it was consequence of a match that had been an attacking practice session for the hosts right from beginning.
At this moment Saudi Arabia does not seem to be improving towards a competitive team. More it seems that either the wrong conclusions were taken or the 1994 team had been an outstanding generation or just more lucky. The weather conditions may have played a part. 1994 it was hot. 1998 they had to play the most important Denmark encounter in rain at 13°C, the match against France at night in Paris.
At least Saudi-Arabia was able to prove that their defence is not bad. And when now after the tournament the players will be allowed to leave the country (it can be questioned whether they will find a club that pays them as much as at home), defenders should be the first on the list.
The result: 1 tie, 2 losses
Best player (after L'equipe): #4 Abdullah Zubromawi (defender, 6.33 points) what made him ranked #15 of all field players (#17 of all players) of the tournament after the first round, a rank he shared with 13 (15) others.

	1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
	2. The Iranian fairytale
	3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
	4. Diagrams and figures telling more
	back to top

South Corea and Japan almost had staged surprises in tough groups at the 1996 Olympics. Such hopes were high. While Japan had impressed recently by determination and talent, Korea had gained a lot of experience from three successive World Cup finals 1986-1994.
But the result was a blow. Although it seemed to leave a bit of hope for the future.
Japan is a young, quite talented team, playing a good looking football. Their problem is, some teams are just too big (physically) for them. They cannot overcome them in one-to-one challenges. That was why they failed against Jamaica although the most of the match was played in the Jamaican half. When the Croats suffered from the heat the match before they might not have taken enough chances. Similar in the Argentina match. In the end they were beaten by the quality of players like Suker and Battistuta who remained cool in situations when the Japanese had panicked. In both matches they dominated the last ten minutes playing more risk. If they had risked more, they might...? It is not unlikely they might have ended up like Korea against Netherlands:
Korea had their 'final' right in the first match. And they lost it because of a red card and because of a surprisingly strong Mexican team. So they had to attack against Netherlands. For some 40 minutes everything was possible, but in the end it was 5:0 and the end for coach Cha Bum Kun. The match against Netherlands was the one in which they played the most percentage of their ball possession in the opponents half. But the Belgium match was the only match in which they had 50% ball possession at all. In the other two matches this value had been below 40%. Korea did not look stronger than 1994, but they missed some injured players, especially their impact player Hwang who was hurt before the tournament in a friendly against China.
It can only be hoped that those two will be able to stage their first victory in a World Cup match 2002 after this World Cup has brought up some doubts whether they will ever be able to reach more. If there had not been 1966.
The result for Japan: 3 losses (1 goal scored)
Best player (after L'equipe): #8 Hidetoshi Nakata (midfield, 6.33 points) what made him ranked #15 of all field players (#17 of all players) of the tournament after the first round, a rank he shared with 13 (15) others.

The result for Korea: 1 tie, 2 losses
Best player (after L'equipe): #1 Kim Byung-ji (goal-keeper, 5.5 points)

diagrams and figures showing more

Diagrams and figures

A	B
C	D
E	F

	1. Asia - A Cinderella candidate?
	2. The Iranian fairytale
	3. Saudi, Arabia, Corea Rep, and Japan
	4. Diagrams and figures telling more
	back to top

A. How Asia performed at World Cups 1978-1998
With Saudi-Arabian success 1994 an unexpected upturn for Asia, but 1998 saw a return to 'normal' (CAF=African Confederation AFC=Asian Confederation).

	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	index

B. How Asia had done in their weakest phase 82-90

The following table is taken from the document How Africa was put at disatvantage at World Cups until 1994 from The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net archives. It gives an introduction how tables and statistics can deceive and it proves by mathematical evidence that Africa had deserved more places at the World Cup already much earlier.
In this table you can see the winning percentage (win per game played, draw is 0.5) of all intercontinental matches (Europe vs. Africa, Europe vs. Asia etc.) played at World Cup finals 1982-1990. (Taking matches Europe vs. Europe into account would only shift the numbers closer to 0.500 because every win then is a loss, too).
What it means for Asia, is obvious: Asia did not very good on those three occasions and this is probably where the opinion on Asian soccer comes from (with 1966 long forgotten). The good opinion on Africa also came with considerable delay.

                Games    W  T  L         Goals  pct. 
1.EUROPE          81    38 23 20        135-84  0.611 
2.SOUTH-AMER      49    21 13 15         67-56  0.561 
3.AFRICA          21     6  8  7         18-24  0.476 
4.NTH/CTL-AM      21     5  4 12         15-37  0.333 
5.ASIA            15     0  2 13         10-34  0.067 
6.AUSTR/OCEA       3     0  0  3          2-12  0.000

	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	index

C. How Asia had been predicted to do
Bookmakers count as the real experts. From the odds offered by the big betting offices one can derive a percentage, how likely a progress of a particular team is. More about this you will find in the essay 81% sure: Brasil will not become World Champions - says Intertops. A value of 20% reaching the second round for example means that if the World Cup was played 100 times about 20 times the team would make it to the second round.
As you can see all four Asian teams had been complete outsiders before the tournament, the biggest outsider of all 32 teams had been Iran (also because of the strong group). Even the accumulated value signals it had considered only a 66,7% chance that any Asian team would still be there after the group games. This seemed really low but turned out to be more than realistic.

	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	index

D. How the Confederations had been predicted
How the Confederations actually did and what this means for the future you will find in another essay: How many places for whom? Here is only the comparison, how they had been expected to do. Like in the preceding diagram it is the predicted probability percentage for the teams taken from the bookmakers odds, accumulated for the continental confederations. (AFC=Asia, CAF=Africa, CONMEBOL=South-America, CONCACAF=Nth/Ctl-America, UEFA=Europe). UEFA has a value of more than 1000 percent for the second round. This means that if the tournament is played 100 times it was expected that an average of 10 European teams will advance from group matches. Exactly this number of teams then indeed advanced! This value of course no other continent had been able even theoretically to reach, because no other confederation had been granted as many places (The highest numbers were South America and Africa with 5).
It springs to the eye that North/Central America had been considered as bad as Asia. This was caused by the misjudgement of Mexico, ranked quite high in FIFA World rankings, had had too many bad results in test matches although winning the Gold Cup before. The performance at France showed this bad image had been deceiving.

	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	index

E. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By Continents
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents had been rated by Intertops (average values) before the tournament. Certain intercontinental clashes had been avoided and arranged by the seeding. This may have been the decisive bit against Africa (CAF) and for South America (CONMEBOL). More about it you read in How many places for whom?

	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	index

F. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By Asian Starters
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents for the particular Asian starters had been rated by Intertops (average values) before the tournament. It is easy to see that South Corea had been considered some prospects for an upset while the low rating for Iran originated to some part in their mission impossible: Germany and Yugoslavia had been rated very high.

	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	index

back to diagram index

This is a component of	THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
© by	**### INSTITUT FÜR UNIVERSELLE ZUSAMMENHÄNGE