World Cup 98 - Review - NO AFRICAN CHAMPION
 
WORLD CUP 98 REVIEW is part of  THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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Looking at the result, 4 of 5 teams out in the first round, the fifth out in the second, Africa seems unable to live up to the expectations that were created 1990. But was the performance really that bad? The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net thinks, each team has to be seperately looked at and that some of the African game might be in an unoutspoken discussion of identity... 

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 20% of the teams advancing to the second round, there already has been some questioning of whether Africa really deserves five places. But Africas performance was not that bad and Africa is still struggeling to find their place in modern football. Also it can be shown that fewer African teams actually disappointed than Asians (3 among the seven worst) or even Europeans (2 among the worst seven teams). The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net did this in the document Review/Preview: How many places for whom?. In the following essay concentration is more on the particular performance and problems of the African teams themselves. 

 Therefore it can be recommended also to read the document Football 2001 - Visions: Golden Eagles - Will there be an African World Champion soon?. 
It was written before the second stage of the qualification (1996) and you will find a more detailed look at   
-Europe's and in particular Germanys view on African football  
-The progress Africa has made in the last three decades. Some points   
-What are the problems of today. Is Africa on the way up or on the way down?  
-plus a preview made before the qualification  
 

 
1998 - a setback?
Xpart1 part2 part3
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
What had all five starters in common? 

They all trusted into European coaching: Henri Michel (France) at Morocco, Henry Kasperczak (France/Poland) at Tunisia, Philippe Troussier (France) at South Africa, Claude Le Roy (France) at Cameroon, and Bora Milutinovic (Yugoslavia) at Nigeria. 

This point of course is immediately conspicious. (Another fact is that even South Africa and Nigeria hired coaches that were non-native English speakers). 

Since a long time European coaches more than experienced players guide the National teams and educated local coaches. In some phases this had been ctiticised, as the coaches imposed their national styles (English, French) onto the game of the former colonies. Today Frenchman Troussier insisted after his success with Burkina Faso at the African Cup Of Nations (3rd place) of having found an ideal blend of African and European elements. It cannot be denied at all that the passing of knowledge by European coaches has helped the African game to the level it is on today. 

But what does continous European coaching mean to the future of the African game? And did it help Africa 1998? 

European influence

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
What are the differences in the coaching situations? 

 Who could say advice of experienced men was not worth to listen to it? And who could say that a World Cup is not a very special and critical adventure that is not better guided by men with tournament experiences? 

 But the situation has been different at the five starters: 

The question of continuity 

 Has the coach been hired just for the World Cup or has it been a continous build-up? 
 The North-Africans imposed a visionary build-up on their National sides: Morocco and Tunisia have been working with their coaches for a long period. They have had influence on infrastructural questions as well. 
 Nigeria, Cameroon, and South Africa did have an inconsistent policy in the coaching question. Not only different coaches but also the fact that those coaches had different pilosophies about the game have made a long term team development impossible. 

European influence: 

How many players play in European clubs already and receive the Eurpean education about the game as well as their coherence with the National teams suffers from the travelling problem? 

Tunisia 4 of 22 only 
Morocco 15 of 22 (of those 15 the biggest group (8) play at Spain or Portugal) 
South Africa 15 of 22 (of those 15 the biggest group (4) play in Turkey and one player was only born in South Africa and thus is more European anyway) 
Cameroon (about)16 of 22 (of those 15 the biggest group (7) play at France, at least 2 should be grown up in France but in the special situation as children of immigrants) 
Nigeria 20 of 22 (distributed all over Europe) 
 

 
1998 - a setback?
part1 Xpart2 part3
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
   
 So you might have read that Africa has made huge progress in the basic knowledge of the game, has an army of well educated players, educated and shaped into form in the professional clubs of Europe. You might have read that in the same time Africas general problems are reflected in the problems of the football (associations) south of the Sahara, and while Europes associations further progessed, in Africa there has been a stagnation in infrastructural questions.  
 The exodus of players has built a class of travelling players that manage an African interpretation of the European game. They include some of a new generation that was already born f.e. at France and then decide to play for the country of their roots. But when they turn home for their National teams they face other problems than in Europe. 
 Now on World Cup level 1998 the teams entered the stage quite well prepared (compared to the 1994 Cameroon problems) and despite the arguing over money in the Nigerian camp, administration cannot be blamed as a main reason for that not all hopes have come true. 

 Other reasons have taken impact away from the improvement of the individual players as well. The 'Europeanisation' of the African game has had the effect African teams cannot show unfamiliar faces to European teams anymore. Only Nigeria was able to win and lose matches by the approach to the game, by the different concept. 
 Orthodox strategies, when the coaches did not want to lose the matches by their decisions, were common property of the game of nearly all outsiders.  
 South Africa, Cameroon, and Nigeria lacked of consistency in build-up for this tournament. Nigerias glamour and failure were inherit in their approach to the game. More about this later. 
 No team underestimated an African team anymore. England had extra test-matches to prepare for the critical encounter with Tunisia and their attitude prevented them from getting surprised while Morocco proved again North Africans do quite well against the British style. 
 Not at last bad luck (Cameroon, Morocco) prevented teams that looked like potential surprise candidates from getting the chance of a fourth match, which then would have been a tough test anyway (Brazil/Italy).  

what is the identity of the African game

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 The African question will be one of identity as well. What ideology will lie in the football. As most big football nations (apart from Egypt and Tunisia) are now almost esclusively represented by players that relearned the game in Europe they represent a certain group of expetriates but not so much their home football anymore. The African Cup Of Nations 1998 (if you have time, try a look at the complete documentation of the tournament) has shown that, while the top has stagnated, smaller football nations had been able to entry with a competible force. And what had been the most remarkable, it had been teams consisting on home based players. 

 Of course, once successful, they will end up in Europe soon, where more money is payed in third and fourth divisions as at home in first. Then new problems emerge. Consistency is almost impossible. Travelling home for single matches, one, two tired training sessions, matches on worse pitches under conditions that are far from what used to at Europe, some holiday feeling being home, new concepts about the game in the heads of players who feel like knowing more now about the game than the home based players, coaches, and authorities. Instead of a unit you have 11 better educated but worse cooperating individuals again. 
 It becomes evident, it is impossible to build up a team consisting of home-based players alone as you will have to create another new one the following month. 
 

 
1998 - a setback?
part1 part2 Xpart3
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 The identity question is one that has to be discussed in Africa. It is not a question how Europeans like the Africans to be the most entertaining or how they would think the African football would be the most successful. Africa has a right to decide on their ways themselves. Somehow the Nigerian players seemed to have prevented some of the old image of an 'African game' but there had been arguments over it inside the team (Oliseh). Maybe the beginning of such a discussion. 

  No question, Africas way up will continue. But the political and economical situation will slow down the process. It will be a long way before Africa might be able to establish professional football that can keep players at home and thus Africas football identity will be under the influence of expatriage for a long time more. One has to exploit the good sides. 

 Now to the teams. 

Morocco & Co - The five teams

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
Morocco  

 Before the World Cup The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net prognosted for Morocco similar impact problems like for Tunisia. And for some 30 minutes it looked just like that, despite a sophisticated style, Morocco would have difficulties to score. But then the attacking game exploded and Morocco scored five brilliant goals in three matches. They sensed the weaknesses of the Norwegian game and just did not win the exciting match because of the vulnurability towards the Norwegian cross balls (2:2).  
 The question has to be put up whether this was not a deficit of preperation. A special coach for the goal keeper should have prepared him better when two British style opponents (Norway, Scotland) were waiting to be played against. But maybe it was the case, it is not known.  
 

 
1998 - a setback?
Africas Five: X Morocco 
Cameroon   South Africa  
Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 This lost points against Norway was one reason for the Morocco out. The second one was the succession of the matches, determined by the draw. While Morocco had to play Brazil in their best shape (the second match) and were chanceless (0:3), their counterparts in the fight for place 2 in the group, Norway, profited from a non-inspired performance of the same opponent in the last group-match, that had been meaningless for Brazil and beat them 2:1. The overwhelming 3:0 success of Morocco against Scotland, whom Norway had drawn with (1:1) did not help Morocco anymore. 
 Everybody agreed, it was an injust go-home for the better team, but even the tears of the Morocco players could not change the result of the group. 
 On a hot Marseille afternoon they would not have been bound to lose against Italy. 
The result: 1 win, 1 tie, 1 loss 
Best player (after L'equipe): #7 Mustapha Hadji (midfield, 6.33 points average) what made him ranked #15 of all field players (#17 of all players) of the tournament after the first round, a rank he shared with 13 (15) others. 

Cameroon in group B

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
Cameroon  

 Cameroon felt deprived of the second round by refereeing. Especially the second of the two refused goals in the last match against Chile triggered bad sentiments and even led to attacks against foreigners inside Cameroon. Also the second red card against the team in that match, the third expulsion of the tournament for a Cameroon player, was questionable.  
 It was bad luck that the strong fighting lions, led by Omam-Byick, did not reach the second round. They had conceded a goal against Austria in the final minute, what had cost them 2 points, and they had played a tough match against Italy, whom they challenged with 10 men against 11, and the match had been suspense for a long time before it was decided.  
   The team started carefully and improved during the tournament. Or you might argue: they started too carefully into the matches. Against Austria the plan seemed to work but the lead was only by one goal, against Italy it was like 'waiting for the 0:1' before Cameroon started to attack.  
 Due to statistics from france98.com Cameroon had around 50% ball possession in all matches. But only 41% of the time they possessed the ball, they had been in the attacking zone against Austria. Againnst Italy it had been 45% and finally against Chile 51%. Too late? It made an average value of 46,0%, usually a sign for attacking with only few players and losing the ball quickly again. It had been the 8th worst of all teams of the first round after the ranking of L'equipe sports magazine. Another symptom of lacking attacking power or risk is a goal average of 0.667 (2 goals in three matches). 
 

 
1998 - a setback??
Africas Five:  Morocco 
  X Cameroon
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 More determination and concentration from the start towards the opponents goal might have changed the outcome. In two matches, the opponents had scored first, only Austria had acted the same careful before they finally changed their faces after Cameroon had scored. 
 Cameroon convinced by the individual strength and skills of the players and gained more and more cooperation and impact during the tournament. Their commitment in one-to-one-challenges brought them many recuperations of balls but also brought the danger of uncontrolled or late tackiling with it. Considering the concept of refereeing applied in this World Cup, expulsions were always a danger (concerns the type of expulsion of the Italy match).  
 It has been a pity, that this team, that looked stronger each match did not get the chance to further improve. But in the next round had been luring - Brazil, the team that has been perfect against Africans on this level. But Cameroon are still young and promising. Hopefully they will be able to qualify for another attempt.  
The result: 2 ties, 1 loss 
Best player (after L'equipe): #1 Songo'o (goal-keeper, 7.00 points average) what made him ranked #1 of all goalkeepers (and #1 of all players) of the tournament after the first round, a rank he shared with 1 (2) others: goal-keeper El Ouaer (Tunisia) and defender Desailly (France). 

South Africa

 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

  
South Africa  

 South Africa once had been the darlings of the European press, after impressive home matches against the world big and winning the African Cup Of Nations 1996 at home. But from then on they were on the way down. Their blend of African and European elements based strongly on the particular team that became old and especially away from home had no impact.  
 After a disappointing Intercontinental Cup, coach Clive Barker was fired and Jomo Sono took over and travelled with a completely changed team to the African Cup Of Nations at Burkina Faso 1998 where they finsished surprise second. After the tournament Phillippe Troussier, 'le sorcier blanc', was hired as new coach. Troussier, famous in West Africa for his transformation of teams to almost invincible squads had coached Burkina Faso to a surprise third place in the tournament. 
 But South Africa is not Burkina Faso. Troussier, who is french native speaker, already had had problems with players and press when coaching the Orlando Pirates once before. He now had to overcome the suspicion of the South Africans, there comes another white European to tell us. He had to deal with a very powerful and critical press and had to deal with players that did not receive him as the messias but considered themselves as stars. He had to deal with a lot of people that did not listen easily but each had an own opinion or concept about the game. 
  After the three matches at France he said something like he felt like a policeman trying to run a holiday camp. He seemed to have missed a seriosity of the players. 
 It is too difficult to judge from outside whether there was a problem and what it was. There is the possibility of a conflict that indeed concerns the question of approach towards the game. It is a problem to be met again when looking at the Nigerain campaign. 
 

 
  1998 - a setback?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  X South Africa
Nigeria  Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 More can be said about the result of the campaign, the performance on the field. It was the same as for many outsiders: The opening did not look like a team full of belief looking for their chance. Indeed it was careful (vs. France) or unconcentrated (vs. Denmark). It was the illusion of waiting for a lucky counter-play confronted with the reality of waiting for the first goal to concede. Then they were overrolled by the enthusiastic French, but lucky that the weather helped them against Danmark. Against Saudi-Arabia they still had the chance to advance with a 3-goal-margin win but looked helpless against the Arabian ball control and shocked by a wrong penalty at the most devostating moment.  
Finally South Africa after L'equipe had only spend an average 43,8 % of their ball possession in the attacking zone, the 6th worst result of the tournament. But there had been 63% possession of the ball against Denmark who themselves played very drawn back in the second half. A bit luck (Fortunes shot against the crossbar) might have changed the whole tournament, if Nigeria and South Africa had played against each other there would have been an African team at quarter finals.  
Still able to change their fate, South AFrica disappointed against Saudi-Arabia even statistically: 50:50 Possession of the ball. But while Saudi-Arabia stayed a sensational 65% of their possession time in the attacking zone, it had been only 43% for South Africa. This confirmes the problem of African teams against the Arabians, that had been watched before. 

Unfortunately South Africa will not be remembered by too many, as the fourth best African team at France. 
The result: 2 ties, 1 loss 
Best player (after L'equipe): #7 Quinton Fortune (5.83 points average)  

Nigeria

 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

 

  
Nigeria 

best information sources on Internet about the SuperEagles: the brilliant Super Eagles page from Sweden and this Super Eagles page for the World Cup 

 Inconsistency had been a key word for the Nigerian Super Eagles. Often their ban from the Nations Cup had been mentioned when it had come to the reasons for the Nigerian problems. But it had also been the inconsistency in the associations decisions about coaching. 
 When winning the Olympics, the basis had been there: the team, the system, and probably the coach, too. After that they had gone with two different coaches through their 6 qualification matches (without playing any other serious internationals) and although been qualified very early, had wasted more time before they finally had appointed another successor.  
 With Bora Milutinovic, experienced from three World Cups with three different teams and mentalities, the mission impossible, winning the Cup, was tackled. 

 The Nigerian performance then appears to be paradicmatical for the discussion suggested in the introduction of this document: will Africa adapt the European way to look at the game completely because it promises to deliver the better result and will it find a promising own interpretation like Brazil? Or will Africa find or prevent an own concept/idea about football, even if this might become labelled as too vulnerable, and develop a way to win anyway? 
 

 
  1998 - a setback?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
South Africa 
 Nigeria Xpart1 part2
Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 In the following The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net starts the daring attempt to comment the Nigerian performance from 2 sides and even with some of the the polemics added that could be heard here and there: 

1) the (klischee) 'European' view: 

 Nigeria deserved to lose against Danmark. They went into the match complacant and the match against Brazil in their heads. Studying the Danmark-South Africa match they should have known, Danmark would go for a blitz start. Even after the first Danish goal they looked like there were thinking 'Oh, how funny, this just makes it more interesting for the audience, we are used to overcome those situations, it won't be difficult against those Danes'. After the second goal it suddenly looked like they had understood. But it was too late. 
 Individual vanities seemed to have been more important than discipline. Milutinovic had no chance to imply his concepts, the players just seem to refuse to listen. Thus he made too many compromises. Already in the Bulgaria match Nigeria had begged for a 1:1 but the Bulgarians had refused. There had been attacks in which the Bulgarians had outnumbered the Nigerians 6:3 and 7:4 around the penalty box in the final 5 minutes! Attackers only needed to pass back to the 16m line but they didn't. 
 Considering the lucky punches against Spain it can be said that Nigeria was lucky to reach the second round at all. 
 As long as the Nigerians lack the reuired discipline, it is logical they cannot get far in play-offs.  

Nigeria (2)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 

  
Nigeria (2) 
 
so far that first view on it, now: 

2) the (klischee) 'African' view: 

 The European football is boring. Nigeria brings joy and desperation, enthusiasm and emotions into the hearts of the fans. Football is more than just staring at the scoreboard and reading the result. Even if two well disciplined teams play each other, only one will win. Nigerians are able to create excitement and do not have a defence like Paraguay anyway. They play what they are strong at. The ability of playing such creative and the problems that arise from the characters required for this style, are two sides of the same medal. Total discipline would distroy the ability to play exciting.  
 Milutinovic's original attitude led to the devostating test match results. And it would have brought probably results like 1:1 against Spain and 0:0 against Bulgaria and Paraguay. How much better is this? A creative team is always critisized more harshly because it will show more fluctuations in the performance. Too often people consider the best match as the 'normal' level the team plays on, but the bad day, where creativity does not work, belongs to the entire performance and cannot get disconnected. Creativity cannot be forced, it is a matter of inspiration. Otherwise it was just work and not creativity. 
 Nigeria will gain experience and come back with more penetration. 
 

 
  1998 - a setback?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
South Africa 
 Nigeria part1 Xpart2
Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
- 

 So far the attempt to display those two ideas about Nigerian football from outside and that are reflected inside the team as well. Nigerian football is not a simple thing. Nigeria consists of 400 different peoples and among them some big ones. The players are big stars in European clubs and all have underwent a different education. Inconstancy in coaching caused some of those problems the cooperation Milutinovic-Nigeria suffered from. With making compromises he achieved more than Troussier with the South African team. The questions is, is it right to hire a coach the players would not listen to and then blame the players for not listening? Or won't they listen to anybody?  
 Nigerias problem as well is the consequence of administative problems of the recent past. The actual players are overwhelmingly from the same generation. The youth and junior programs have declined, they have not been seen anymore on international level (U17 / U20). Although it is not seen to often that a good U17/U20 performance really leads to the success of the same players as a national team anyway. Maybe the upcoming U20-World Championship at Nigeria will bring a change. If the country does not move towards even bigger political problems. 
 The 1:4 has been a shock against the best Nigerian weapon: confidence. Some might call it over-confidence, but the most other outsiders at France 98 seemed to have been just too shy to reach anything. 
The result: 2 wins, 2 losses, goals in all mtatches, good ball possession and attacking percentage results 
Best player (after L'equipe): #10 Jay Jay Okocha (midfield, 6.67 points average), with this value among the top 10 players of the 16 play-off teams 
 
Tunisia

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
Tunisia 

 Because of the disappointing Nations Cup appearance Tunisia had long been considered as the weakest African contender. They seemed to lack impact and good replacement players. But Adel Sellimi had returned to the teams and had added some danger potential. 
 At France they played unlucky. Like all outsiders they played a comnservative game. Concentrated English players, in absence of the big heat, and the timid approach let Tunisia fall behind against England. Inaccurate shooting, especially by Beya, spoiled the chance to equalise, before Scholes decided the match for England. Another unlucky match against Colombia saw them lose late 0:1 and showed again the problem: not much attacking impact. In the last match at least Tunisia scored a goal. An average of 41,5 % of their ball possession, the 4th worst value of the first round, Tunisia spend in the attacking zone. And this even looks better than it is: it had been 38% against England and 32% against Romania. The 53% against Colombia resulted also from the fact that Tunisia in this match had only 40% possession of the ball anyway. Shy, shy. 
 

 
  1998 - a setback?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria 
 X Tunisia
Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 After the second match coach Henry Kasperczak, who had rebuild the national team during the last four years, was fired because of 'unprofessionality'. This seems to have to do with a planned or beginning new engagement of Kasperczak at a French club and problems which arose from it (concentration?). Impossible to tell about from here. 
 What can be said is that the success of Tunisia not depended on Kasperczak alone, although he is said to have played a big part, but also has to do with the good work the Tunisian clubs do and that can be seen in many successes on the club level. Whether the small country can produce enough talents to keep or even raise the level now reached, remains to be seen. Yet, the best players have been difficult to replace, when necessary. 
 
The result: 1 tie, 2 losses 
Best player (after L'equipe): #1 El Ouaer (goal-keeper, 7.00 points average) what made him ranked #1 of all goalkeepers (and #1 of all players) of the tournament after the first round, a rank he shared with 1 (2) others: goal-keeper Songo'o (Cameroon) and defender Desailly (France). 

diagrams and figures showing more

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

  
Diagrams and figures 
A B 
C D
E F
G H
 
 
  1998 - a setback?
Africas Five:  Morocco  Cameroon 
  South Africa  Nigeria  Tunisia
X Diagrams and figures telling more
back to top
 
 
 
A. Africa on a zigzag downhill? 
The tendency for Africa is a little downwards when it comes to overall winning percentage. For the first time Asia passed them by 1994 with Saudi Arabia doing as good as Nigeria statistically. (CAF=African Confederation AFC=Asian Confederation) but 1998 saw a better performance despite some bad luck. 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
B. How Africa had done in their best phase 82-90 
The following table is taken from the document How Africa was put at disatvantage at World Cups until 1994 from The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net archives. It gives an introduction how tables and statistics can deceive and it proves by mathematical evidence that Africa had deserved more places at the World Cup already much earlier.  
In this table you can see the winning percentage (win per game played, draw is 0.5) of all intercontinental matches (Europe vs. Africa, Europe vs. Asia etc.) played at World Cup finals 1982-1990. (Taking matches Europe vs. Europe into account would only shift the numbers closer to 0.500 because every win then is a loss, too).  
 
                Games    W  T  L         Goals  pct. 
1.EUROPE          81    38 23 20        135-84  0.611 
2.SOUTH-AMER      49    21 13 15         67-56  0.561 
3.AFRICA          21     6  8  7         18-24  0.476 
4.NTH/CTL-AM      21     5  4 12         15-37  0.333 
5.ASIA            15     0  2 13         10-34  0.067 
6.AUSTR/OCEA       3     0  0  3          2-12  0.000
The good opinion on Africa obviously came with considerable delay. As you can see from the following diagram, one reason for the prejudice against the African game that made people not perceive the strong 80's performance might have been the 1974 'hole' (1966 had been boycottet and before nearly all countries had been colonies) (AFC=Asia CAF=Africa): 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
C. How Africas number of places had improved 78-98 
Winning percentage is one story, advancing to the second round another. This is not a too valuable table because it consideres all teams as same strong. It implies the idea, if you have 10% of the teams starting you should participate at the teams making it to the next round with 10%, too. Above this line, the tournament was a success for you. You can see that Africa never reached that average line and is not predicted to this time as well. At France98 the idea would require 3 teams to make it to the second round. In that case it can be spoken of a breakthrough. 
year African starters 2nd round should see 2nd round saw saturation
1970-78 1/16 = 6.25% 0.5 teams 0 team 0%
1982* 2/24 = 8.33% 1 team 0 team 0%
1986 2/24 = 8.33% 1.33 teams 1 team 75%
1990 2/24 = 8.33% 1.33 teams 1 team 75%
1994 3/24 = 12.5 % 2 teams 1 team 50%
1998 5/32 = 15.6 % 2.5 teams 1 team 40%
*1982 has been played by a different mode. this causes the strange values 

Now the same game with the third round. This table only tells one thing already known: That Cameroon 1990 has been an outstanding success yet. 
year African starters 3rd round should see 2nd round saw saturation
1970-78 1/16 = 6.25% 0.25 teams 0 team 0%
1982* 2/24 = 8.33% 0.33 teams 0 team 0%
1986 2/24 = 8.33% 0.67 teams 0 team 0%
1990 2/24 = 8.33% 0.67 teams 1 team 133%
1994 3/24 = 12.5 % 1 team 0 team 0%
1998 5/32 = 15.6 % 1.25 teams 0 team 53%
*1982 has been played by a different mode. this causes the strange values 

Another way to look at it. This is a bit deceiving as well, because until 1978 the 1 place among the last 16 came because of there were only 16 starters anyway. But this table emphasizes the wish for some more impact in the future, as the number of starters did not change too much yet: 
year African starters reached last 16 reached last 8 reached last 4
1970-78 1/16 = 6.25% 1 team 0 team 0 team
1982* 2/24 = 8.33% 2(0)* teams 0 team 0 team
1986 2/24 = 8.33% 1 team 0 team 0 team
1990 2/24 = 8.33% 1 team 1 team 0 team
1994 3/24 = 12.5 % 1 team 0 team 0 team
1998 5/32 = 15.6 % 1 team 0 team 0 team
*1982 has been played by a different mode. 0 teams reached the round of the last 12, but the 2 starters ranked among the best 16 teams of the tournament in all final tables after points and after winning percentage.

A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
D. How Africa had been predicted to do 
Bookmakers count as the real experts. From the odds offered by the big betting offices one can derive a percentage, how likely a progress of a particular team is. More about this you will find in the essay 81% sure: Brasil will not become World Champions - says Intertops. A value of 20% reaching the second round for example means that if the World Cup was played 100 times about 20 times the team would make it to the second round.  
As you can see, Africa alltogether had been predicted 1.5 places in the second round. It seemed not unlikely Africa would do better. But in the end it was only one team, Nigeria, who made it to the last 16. Only Morocco had been underrated. By the way - Nigeria, due to FIFA world rankings, had been far the worst starter of the tournament. 
A 
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
index
 
 
E. How the Confederations had been predicted 
How the Confederations actually did and what this means for the future you will find in another essay: How many places for whom? Here is only the comparison, how they had been expected to do. Like in the preceding diagram it is the predicted probability percentage for the teams taken from the bookmakers odds, accumulated for the continental confederations. (AFC=Asia, CAF=Africa, CONMEBOL=South-America, CONCACAF=Nth/Ctl-America, UEFA=Europe). UEFA has a value of more than 1000 percent for the second round. This means that if the tournament is played 100 times it was expected that an average of 10 European teams will advance from group matches. Exactly this number of teams then indeed advanced! This value of course no other continent had been able even theoretically to reach, because no other confederation had been granted as many places (The highest numbers were South America and Africa with 5).  
A 
B
C
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F. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By Continents 
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents had been rated by Intertops (average values). It is obvious that the average value for first round opponents of South Americans (2,3 % to win the Cup) and Europeans (2,8%) is quite low. Certain intercontinental clashes had been avoided by the seeding. This may have been the decisive bit against Africa (CAF) and for South America (CONMEBOL). More about it you read in How many places for whom?  
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G. Average Rating Of First Round Opponents By African Starters 
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents for the particular African  starters had been rated by Intertops (average values). Obviously there is an effect by the rating for the top-betted teams of the group, especially a Brazil-effect. A first idea suggests that Nigeria might be rated high themselves and this might cause the low rating for their opponents. See diagram H for more. 
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H. The same diagram but without the groups top bets 
In this diagram the topbets of each group (Brazil, Italy, France, Spain, England) are left out. This shows that concerning Nigeria the bookmakers had not considered Spain as strong as f.e. France. Morocco still is thought to have tough opposition, even leaving out Brazil. And Romania and Colombia as opponents for Tunisia had been rated the highest. This partly came from the draw, Romania was the original top seed while England, the then toprated team of that group was only a second-seat. Cameroon had been clearly given the most chances to reach the second round when opposition was concerned. 
 
 
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Mail to: wille@informatik.uni-frankfurt.de