World Cup 98 - Review - NO AFRICAN CHAMPION |
WORLD CUP 98 REVIEW is part of | THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET |
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Looking at the result, 4 of 5 teams out in the first round, the fifth out in the second, Africa seems unable to live up to the expectations that were created 1990. But was the performance really that bad? The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net thinks, each team has to be seperately looked at and that some of the African game might be in an unoutspoken discussion of identity... |
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A. Africa
on a zigzag downhill?
The tendency for Africa is a little downwards when it comes to overall winning percentage. For the first time Asia passed them by 1994 with Saudi Arabia doing as good as Nigeria statistically. (CAF=African Confederation AFC=Asian Confederation) but 1998 saw a better performance despite some bad luck. |
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The following table is taken from the document How Africa was put at disatvantage at World Cups until 1994 from The Shot That Passed Right Through The Net archives. It gives an introduction how tables and statistics can deceive and it proves by mathematical evidence that Africa had deserved more places at the World Cup already much earlier. In this table you can see the winning percentage (win per game played, draw is 0.5) of all intercontinental matches (Europe vs. Africa, Europe vs. Asia etc.) played at World Cup finals 1982-1990. (Taking matches Europe vs. Europe into account would only shift the numbers closer to 0.500 because every win then is a loss, too). Games W T L Goals pct. 1.EUROPE 81 38 23 20 135-84 0.611 2.SOUTH-AMER 49 21 13 15 67-56 0.561 3.AFRICA 21 6 8 7 18-24 0.476 4.NTH/CTL-AM 21 5 4 12 15-37 0.333 5.ASIA 15 0 2 13 10-34 0.067 6.AUSTR/OCEA 3 0 0 3 2-12 0.000The good opinion on Africa obviously came with considerable delay. As you can see from the following diagram, one reason for the prejudice against the African game that made people not perceive the strong 80's performance might have been the 1974 'hole' (1966 had been boycottet and before nearly all countries had been colonies) (AFC=Asia CAF=Africa): |
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C. How
Africas number of places had improved 78-98
Winning percentage is one story, advancing to the second round another. This is not a too valuable table because it consideres all teams as same strong. It implies the idea, if you have 10% of the teams starting you should participate at the teams making it to the next round with 10%, too. Above this line, the tournament was a success for you. You can see that Africa never reached that average line and is not predicted to this time as well. At France98 the idea would require 3 teams to make it to the second round. In that case it can be spoken of a breakthrough.
Now the same game with the third round. This table only tells one thing already known: That Cameroon 1990 has been an outstanding success yet.
Another way to look at it. This is a bit deceiving as well, because until 1978 the 1 place among the last 16 came because of there were only 16 starters anyway. But this table emphasizes the wish for some more impact in the future, as the number of starters did not change too much yet:
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D. How
Africa had been predicted to do
Bookmakers count as the real experts. From the odds offered by the big betting offices one can derive a percentage, how likely a progress of a particular team is. More about this you will find in the essay 81% sure: Brasil will not become World Champions - says Intertops. A value of 20% reaching the second round for example means that if the World Cup was played 100 times about 20 times the team would make it to the second round. As you can see, Africa alltogether had been predicted 1.5 places in the second round. It seemed not unlikely Africa would do better. But in the end it was only one team, Nigeria, who made it to the last 16. Only Morocco had been underrated. By the way - Nigeria, due to FIFA world rankings, had been far the worst starter of the tournament. |
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E. How
the Confederations had been predicted
How the Confederations actually did and what this means for the future you will find in another essay: How many places for whom? Here is only the comparison, how they had been expected to do. Like in the preceding diagram it is the predicted probability percentage for the teams taken from the bookmakers odds, accumulated for the continental confederations. (AFC=Asia, CAF=Africa, CONMEBOL=South-America, CONCACAF=Nth/Ctl-America, UEFA=Europe). UEFA has a value of more than 1000 percent for the second round. This means that if the tournament is played 100 times it was expected that an average of 10 European teams will advance from group matches. Exactly this number of teams then indeed advanced! This value of course no other continent had been able even theoretically to reach, because no other confederation had been granted as many places (The highest numbers were South America and Africa with 5). |
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F. Average
Rating Of First Round Opponents By Continents
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents had been rated by Intertops (average values). It is obvious that the average value for first round opponents of South Americans (2,3 % to win the Cup) and Europeans (2,8%) is quite low. Certain intercontinental clashes had been avoided by the seeding. This may have been the decisive bit against Africa (CAF) and for South America (CONMEBOL). More about it you read in How many places for whom? |
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G. Average
Rating Of First Round Opponents By African Starters
This diagram shows how strong the first round opponents for the particular African starters had been rated by Intertops (average values). Obviously there is an effect by the rating for the top-betted teams of the group, especially a Brazil-effect. A first idea suggests that Nigeria might be rated high themselves and this might cause the low rating for their opponents. See diagram H for more. |
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H. The
same diagram but without the groups top bets
In this diagram the topbets of each group (Brazil, Italy, France, Spain, England) are left out. This shows that concerning Nigeria the bookmakers had not considered Spain as strong as f.e. France. Morocco still is thought to have tough opposition, even leaving out Brazil. And Romania and Colombia as opponents for Tunisia had been rated the highest. This partly came from the draw, Romania was the original top seed while England, the then toprated team of that group was only a second-seat. Cameroon had been clearly given the most chances to reach the second round when opposition was concerned. |
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Mail to: wille@informatik.uni-frankfurt.de |