Approaching the matches:
Saturdays sees the decision
in one of the most thrilling World Cup qualification grous ever. Only one
out of three World Cup form teams, Senegal, Egypt, or Morocco, will go
to Korea/ Japan 2002.
If both, Senegal and Egypt,
win their away matches today it will come down to a bizzar race for the
better goal difference. Senegal will have to win by three goals more to
beat out Egypt. So the Senegalese result only matters to Egypt when it
is 4:0 or higher.
Morocco only will qualify,
if both, Senegal, and Egypt, fail to win their away matches today.
If one of the two wins,
it will be them because of superior goal-difference to Morocco.
|
M |
G |
P |
Morocco |
8 |
8-3 |
15 |
Egypt |
7 |
15-6 |
12 |
Senegal |
7 |
9-2 |
12 |
Algeria |
7 |
10-13 |
7 |
Namibia |
7 |
3-21 |
2 |
group winner qualifies for
World Cup 2002
Both opponents strength seems
unpredictable. Namibia has had the biggest gaps in performances in the
group (f.e. 1:1 home and 2:8 away against Egypt, 0:0 against Morocco but
0:4 against Algeria in their other home matches). And Algeria will come
out of a summer break (they were idle last weekend) and will play without
most of their European based stars (only three have been invited) so that
they do not resemble the team that hosted Senegal or Morocco.
Morocco who had looked like
the more lucky of the three yet (at Egypt and Algeria, the 'unseen' goal
against Senegal) in return have received their share of bad luck in the
schedule: They can only sit and watch while the other two will likely go
for a goal hunt against depleted opponents.
The schedule confusions:
Many, and so me, were surprised
to learn last Monday in BBC,
Reuters,
and AFP
(Agence France Press) reports that the deciding Group C matches were
about to take place this Saturday. All three reports made it sound like
the change of the schedule had just been made. AFP, normally the best informed
source, themselves spoke of 'a surprise move' (in one
report, and raised some questions in a second
report).
A few days later I
/ The Shot posed some serious questions connected to the matter here on
this page, which unfortunately led to some Egyptians feeling accused of
an unfair ongoing. I had felt very strange about the fact that a suggested
shorthanded change would have left Algeria, Egyptian opponents with no
time for legal call-ups of professionals and only few hours to collect
an unprepared homebased squad from summer holidays. Also the change meant
a switch in the original successsion of the matches.
But in the end it helped
to lift the fog: mails from Egypt convinced me that the change in the schedule
had indeed been made long ago to avoid a collision with the Zamalek
Cairo involvement in the FIFA World Club Championships (which meanwhile
have been called off, unfortunately).
So: It is NOT a surprise
move and the headaches about the reports have been cleared.
There was a second discussion
point: the kick-off times. Egypt was about to kick off four hours later
than Senegal, which would have given them the advantage to know the result
of the Senegalese in advance.
The reasons given by the
Namibian and Algerian hosts: In Namibia (south of the equator and so in
winter) dark settles early and floodlight facilities are inadequate at
the stadium at Windhoek.
Algeria said that it is
too hot to play in the middle of the summer during daytime.
Very late FIFA ruled both
matches to be played at 1500 GMT. One might consider it a disadvantage
for Egypt to play in such a heat, but I think it more likely it will affect
the team which is less motivated anyway, the Algerians. Add to it the fact
they come out of a summer break and have not played last weekend, so should
not be in a good form.
Although it seems much more
fair from the competition point of view, a serious but remains:
I hope FIFA has checked
very well before with doctors about that change. With the World Cup in
front of their eyes some Egyptian players might be willing to ask too much
from their bodies.
There have been World Cup
matches played in such a midday and afternoon heat at Mexico 70, 86 and
USA 90, so maybe the problem is controllable. But I hope it has been checked
thoroughly upon before.
What still remains are the
general headaches about the design of the qualifiers. For example about
Morocco having their chances cut by the fact that neither the Algerian
nor the Namibian team will look like the one they had to play against and
it seems very unlikely both will hold their opponents on Saturday..
All those troubles have been
predictable: They are a consequence of an overambitious schedule with 5
teams in a group. This meant from the beginning weak teams would drop out
early and finish great share of their campaign with depleted squads and
improvising. CAF/FIFA has even been saved from further embarassment by
the Ivorian slip at Congo. Otherwise, with Tunisia idle because of the
5 teams format, there would have been a bizarr Ivorian goal hunt against
the DR Congo at Abidjan next weekend which would have triggered any kinds
of speculations if successful.
The deciding matches have
been scheduled into the summer break for most countries: it was clear this
would mean, especially the teams without chances left would come up with
some strange performances. Suddenly results exploded in recent weeks, Congo
0:6 at Tunisia (before only 0:2 at Côte d'Ivoire), Madagascar 0:6
at Côte d'Ivoire (before only 0:1 at Congo), and Namibia with that
helpless 2:8 at Egypt which easily could have been 0:15 with some more
luck for the Pharaos.
In Africa it is not as easy
as in Europe to maintain playing matches though already out of the qualifying
picture. Involving teams like Namibia, Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, or Sierra
Leone, which cannot be expected to play another role than the one of the
unpredictable, is adding a lottery factor to the qualifiers. Those teams
often have two or three coaches and entirely different squads throughout
such a long campaign.
There will remain a strange
and undeserved feeling whoever will qualify (unless it is Morocco). If
Egypt just achieve what they need. Or if Senegal win by 6,7, or 8 at Namibia.
The CAF is known for quick rule changes during tournaments (see U20 African
Youth Cup). They could ask both federations whether they would agree to
decide it by a match on neutral ground instead, if both win on Saturday.
It would look more bright and less bizarr than a goal hunt against depleted
opponency.
But it is an unrealistic
idea and unfair to Morocco.
possible
consequences:
- smaller groups:
to reduce the number of teams with nothing to play for, who make it a lotttery
by lining up totally different squads with uunclear motivation. It is better
to decide a World Cup place in the matches bewteen the strong teams than
in shoot-outs against amateurs or away on their bumpy pitches.
Smaller groups have also
the consequence of less matches, especially less matches involving teams
without a qulification chance.
- use other tie breakers:
imagine Côte d'Ivoire would have gone on a bizzar goal hunt against
the DR COongo next weekend (this was spoiled by their slip-up at Congo).
It had not been about who is the better team, Tunisia or Côte d'Ivoire,
it just had been ridiculous. I am fan of keeping goal difference as a tie
breaker, especially when more than one team qualifies from a group, but
here it is different: with only one place at stake, direct comparision
or better a match on neutral ground should decide.
- a more transparent
information policy by CAF and FIFA: Who decides what and why? Who has
been consulted, who has agreed, and when has it been decided? What have
been the arguments for and against? Who has been seeded into which pot
for a draw and why exactly? CAF and FIFA have websites. A better
information policy could help to avoid speculations, rumours,a nd questions,
that automatically come up when seemingly strange decidsions are declared
'from above' or out of a black box like regimes do with their population.
Although FIFA does not feel so: the greatness of football football (apart
from the idea in the rules) is the fans. It is not the professional clubs,
not the associations, not even the individual players. If they don't show
up, the 60,000 fans in the stadium could easily replace all of them by
selecting new ones out of their middle. But not the other way round.
- avoid that two week
rhythm which has dominated the last 6 months of World Cup and Nations Cup
qualifiers: It is killing the players who play for European clubs.
They travel and travel and miss every second match of their clubs. Even
African clubs like ASEC Abidjan complain about hardly having their squad
together for some time. Better have blocks of matches (problem: travelling
in Africa, different climates etc.) and after it a longer break. This is
also better for the coherence and improvement of the national teams especially
of those countries who have a lot of professionals.
That with Senegal, Egypt,
and Morocco three brilliant teams, who all deserve a place at the World
Cup, have been drawn into one single group is tough luck and seeding consequence.
Egypt had to be drawn in one group with one of the 5 top seeds (the teams
qualified for last World Cup) and Senegals rise seems to have come too
surprisingly so that it had not been considered in the seeding.
One might assume that each
of the teams f.e. had won Group B, where with Nigeria and Ghana two crisis
shaken giants have problems against (half) amateur sides like Sudan or
against Liberia (who only have a handful of prominent professionals and
a lot of infrastructural problems themselves). But that could not be known
before.
All three of them, Senegal,
Egypt, and Morocco, would be great representants for African Football to
go to the World Cup for different reasons:
Morocco would be great because
they have a great team and with the experience from last World Cup they
could tackle the tournament in an improved and confident manor, and might
be able to play a good role.
Egypt would be great because
they have a maybe even stronger team and a great design of their game.
They are always well prepared and have some huge talents. Their only problem
is the difference between confident and anxious (periods of) matches.
Senegal would be great because
from the design of their game and the spirit of the squad they are a role
model for the subsaharan African Football. Their fighting spirit and team
structure could make them a real World Cup surprise and they might be the
biggest threat of those three to (prominent) non-African teams. |