World Cup 2002 - African qualification

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World Cup 2002 - African qualification - Group C
before week 10
Algeria - Egypt, Namibia - Senegal
the preview and the the schedule confusion
Approaching the matches:
Saturdays sees the decision in one of the most thrilling World Cup qualification grous ever. Only one out of three World Cup form teams, Senegal, Egypt, or Morocco, will go to Korea/ Japan 2002.
If both, Senegal and Egypt, win their away matches today it will come down to a bizzar race for the better goal difference. Senegal will have to win by three goals more to beat out Egypt. So the Senegalese result only matters to Egypt when it is 4:0 or higher.
Morocco only will qualify, if both, Senegal, and Egypt, fail to win their away matches today. 
If one of the two wins, it will be them because of superior goal-difference to Morocco. 
 
M G P
Morocco  8 8-3 15
Egypt  7 15-6 12
Senegal  7 9-2 12
Algeria  7 10-13 7
Namibia  7 3-21 2
group winner qualifies for World Cup 2002

Both opponents strength seems unpredictable. Namibia has had the biggest gaps in performances in the group (f.e. 1:1 home and 2:8 away against Egypt, 0:0 against Morocco but 0:4 against Algeria in their other home matches). And Algeria will come out of a summer break (they were idle last weekend) and will play without most of their European based stars (only three have been invited) so that they do not resemble the team that hosted Senegal or Morocco. 
Morocco who had looked like the more lucky of the three yet (at Egypt and Algeria, the 'unseen' goal against Senegal) in return have received their share of bad luck in the schedule: They can only sit and watch while the other two will likely go for a goal hunt against depleted opponents.

The schedule confusions:
Many, and so me, were surprised to learn last Monday in BBC, Reuters, and AFP (Agence France Press) reports that the deciding Group C matches  were about to take place this Saturday. All three reports made it sound like the change of the schedule had just been made. AFP, normally the best informed source, themselves spoke of  'a surprise move' (in one report, and raised some questions in a second report). 
A few days later  I / The Shot posed some serious questions connected to the matter here on this page, which unfortunately led to some Egyptians feeling accused of an unfair ongoing. I had felt very strange about the fact that a suggested shorthanded change would have left Algeria, Egyptian opponents with no time for legal call-ups of professionals and only few hours to collect an unprepared homebased squad from summer holidays. Also the change meant a switch in the original successsion of the matches.

But in the end it helped to lift the fog: mails from Egypt convinced me that the change in the schedule had indeed been made long ago to avoid a collision with the Zamalek Cairo involvement in the FIFA World Club Championships (which meanwhile have been called off, unfortunately).
So: It is NOT a surprise move and the headaches about the reports have been cleared.

There was a second discussion point: the kick-off times. Egypt was about to kick off four hours later than Senegal, which would have given them the advantage to know the result of the Senegalese in advance.
The reasons given by the Namibian and Algerian hosts: In Namibia (south of the equator and so in winter) dark settles early and floodlight facilities are inadequate at the stadium at Windhoek.
Algeria said that it is too hot to play in the middle of the summer during daytime.

Very late FIFA ruled both matches to be played at 1500 GMT. One might consider it a disadvantage for Egypt to play in such a heat, but I think it more likely it will affect the team which is less motivated anyway, the Algerians. Add to it the fact they come out of a summer break and have not played last weekend, so should not be in a good form.
Although it seems much more fair from the competition point of view, a serious but remains:
I hope FIFA has checked very well before with doctors about that change. With the World Cup in front of their eyes some Egyptian players might be willing to ask too much from their bodies. 
There have been World Cup matches played in such a midday and afternoon heat at Mexico 70, 86 and USA 90, so maybe the problem is controllable. But I hope it has been checked thoroughly upon before.

What still remains are the general headaches about the design of the qualifiers. For example about Morocco having their chances cut by the fact that neither the Algerian nor the Namibian team will look like the one they had to play against and it seems very unlikely both will hold their opponents on Saturday..

All those troubles have been predictable: They are a consequence of an overambitious schedule with 5 teams in a group. This meant from the beginning weak teams would drop out early and finish great share of their campaign with depleted squads and improvising. CAF/FIFA has even been saved from further embarassment by the Ivorian slip at Congo. Otherwise, with Tunisia idle because of the 5 teams format, there would have been a bizarr Ivorian goal hunt against the DR Congo at Abidjan next weekend which would have triggered any kinds of speculations if successful.
The deciding matches have been scheduled into the summer break for most countries: it was clear this would mean, especially the teams without chances left would come up with some strange performances. Suddenly results exploded in recent weeks, Congo 0:6 at Tunisia (before only 0:2 at Côte d'Ivoire), Madagascar 0:6 at Côte d'Ivoire (before only 0:1 at Congo), and Namibia with that helpless 2:8 at Egypt which easily could have been 0:15 with some more luck for the Pharaos.
In Africa it is not as easy as in Europe to maintain playing matches though already out of the qualifying picture. Involving teams like Namibia, Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, or Sierra Leone, which cannot be expected to play another role than the one of the unpredictable, is adding a lottery factor to the qualifiers. Those teams often have two or three coaches and entirely different squads throughout such a long campaign.

There will remain a strange and undeserved feeling whoever will qualify (unless it is Morocco). If Egypt just achieve what they need. Or if Senegal win by 6,7, or 8 at Namibia. The CAF is known for quick rule changes during tournaments (see U20 African Youth Cup). They could ask both federations whether they would agree to decide it by a match on neutral ground instead, if both win on Saturday. It would look more bright and less bizarr than a goal hunt against depleted opponency. 
But it is an unrealistic idea and unfair to Morocco.


possible consequences:
- smaller groups:  to reduce the number of teams with nothing to play for, who make it a lotttery by lining up totally different squads with uunclear motivation. It is better to decide a World Cup place in the matches bewteen the strong teams than in shoot-outs against amateurs or away on their bumpy pitches.
Smaller groups have also the consequence of less matches, especially less matches involving teams without a qulification chance. 
- use other tie breakers: imagine Côte d'Ivoire would have gone on a bizzar goal hunt against the DR COongo next weekend (this was spoiled by their slip-up at Congo). It had not been about who is the better team, Tunisia or Côte d'Ivoire, it just had been ridiculous. I am fan of keeping goal difference as a tie breaker, especially when more than one team qualifies from a group, but here it is different: with only one place at stake, direct comparision or better a match on neutral ground should decide. 
- a more transparent information policy by CAF and FIFA: Who decides what and why? Who has been consulted, who has agreed, and when has it been decided? What have been the arguments for and against? Who has been seeded into which pot for a draw and why exactly? CAF and FIFA have websites. A better information policy could help to avoid speculations, rumours,a nd questions, that automatically come up when seemingly strange decidsions are declared 'from above' or out of a black box like regimes do with their population. Although FIFA does not feel so: the greatness of football football (apart from the idea in the rules) is the fans. It is not the professional clubs, not the associations, not even the individual players. If they don't show up, the 60,000 fans in the stadium could easily replace all of them by selecting new ones out of their middle. But not the other way round.
- avoid that two week rhythm which has dominated the last 6 months of World Cup and Nations Cup qualifiers:  It is killing the players who play for European clubs. They travel and travel and miss every second match of their clubs. Even African clubs like ASEC Abidjan complain about hardly having their squad together for some time. Better have blocks of matches (problem: travelling in Africa, different climates etc.) and after it a longer break. This is also better for the coherence and improvement of the national teams especially of those countries who have a lot of professionals.


That with Senegal, Egypt, and Morocco three brilliant teams, who all deserve a place at the World Cup, have been drawn into one single group is tough luck and seeding consequence. Egypt had to be drawn in one group with one of the 5 top seeds (the teams qualified for last World Cup) and Senegals rise seems to have come too surprisingly so that it had not been considered in the seeding. 
One might assume that each of the teams f.e. had won Group B, where with Nigeria and Ghana two crisis shaken giants have problems against (half) amateur sides like Sudan or against Liberia (who only have a handful of prominent professionals and a lot of infrastructural problems themselves). But that could not be known before.

All three of them, Senegal, Egypt, and Morocco, would be great representants for African Football to go to the World Cup for different reasons:
Morocco would be great because they have a great team and with the experience from last World Cup they could tackle the tournament in an improved and confident manor, and might be able to play a good role. 
Egypt would be great because they have a maybe even stronger team and a great design of their game. They are always well prepared and have some huge talents. Their only problem is the difference between confident and anxious (periods of) matches.
Senegal would be great because from the design of their game and the spirit of the squad they are a role model for the subsaharan African Football. Their fighting spirit and team structure could make them a real World Cup surprise and they might be the biggest threat of those three to (prominent) non-African teams.

 

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