OLYMPICS 2000 - The African Qualification

This had been the situation before the matches: 
Only the first will qualify, after the results of yesterday, the second placed will have no chance! A pity as all three teams look very strog. 
Morocco will qualify by a victory. A defeat means they are out. 
If they draw, it will depend on the outcome of the Tunisia-Egypt match. 
Côte d'Ivoire  will have to win at Morocco and keep an eye on the Tunisia-Egypt scoreline. If Egypt wins too it will be a matter of goal difference. 
Egypt will need a draw or a Côte d'Ivoire victory in the other match. They will have to win their own match as well: If there is a draw between Morocco and Côte d'Ivoire, they will have to win by one or two goals, depending on the exact scores. 
If Côte d'Ivoire wins, they will have to catch up the Ivorian three goal edge. Whether they will need a victory four or five goals higher will depend on the exact scores. 
Too complicated? Now: Likely is: Morocco wins, Morocco qualifies (100% sure), Côte d'Ivoire wins, Côte d'Ivoire qualifies (80% sure), Morocco and Côte d'Ivoire draw and Egypt wins -> Egypt qualifies (85% sure) 

Morocco	5	9-7	10
Côte d'Ivoire	5	12-8	8
Egypt	5	8-7	8
Tunisia	5	5-12	1

 

Morocco - Côte d'Ivoire  14:30-15:00:  the match will begin 30 minutes later than the other	Tunisia - Egypt  14:30-15:00:  Only a few fans as Tunisia is long out of the race. Egypt begin very concentrated and uses the half hour advantage to provide Morocco and Côte d'Ivoire with a shock that will make them nervous:  It is 0:2 after 13 minutes!  The second goal by #9 (Ahmed Billal?), a deflected shot which takes a lucky curve into the Tunisian goal.   Egypt creates more dangerous situations while Tunisia, who have had defence problems, only threaten the Egypt goal very sporadically
15:00-15:30:  Both teams as known: Côte d'Ivoire with their stylish midfield game and Morocco smartly uncovering the defensive positioning errors of their opponents, very alert.  Both have a must score opportunity in the first 15 minutes.  ('16) Another big opportunity for Morocco - but the Ivorian keeper can save. It smells like goals.  ('23) Zezeto (Zeze) (CIV) with a couple of soloruns stopped short.  ('26) A fine attack by the Ivorians initiated by #4 with a little luck as balls get deflected and from about 10 meters they score - 0:1  ('28) the Ivorian keeper has difficulties handling a long range header which then bounces off the crossbar.  ('30) another confusion in the Ivorian defence and the dangerous #14 scores from close range - 1:1  ('30) almost an own goal by the Ivorians - with this defence they will have to score a lot of goals	15:00-15:30:  Tunisia has found into the match, Egypt more drawn back now. Tunisia have overcome the early shock and even can create some threatening scenes. At the end of the half another opportunity for Egypt.  Halftime 0:2  (With this scoreline, Egypt needs a draw in the other match)
15:30-16:00:  ('44) a Morocco counter in which #18 and #16 confuse 4 defenders by their running paths and #18 spots the such created gab and scores from 16 meters - 2:1, brilliant goal  ('45) a big header opportunity for Morocco when an attacker is unmarked again, wide  ('injury time) also a header opportunity for Côte d'Ivoire, wide  Halftime 2:1  With this scoreline, Morocco is qualified, but there is still a half to play. Côte d'Ivoire needs to win. At this moment a draw would bring Egypt to Sydney.	15:30-16:00:  the match continues as the first half had ended: Tunisia with the edge in ball possession, attacking, creating a few chances but cannot force the ball into the net.  Egypt drawn back, trying to conserve their two goal advantage. They might know the scoreline of the other match and just rely on the Ivorians will not win. If Tunisia scores only one goal, this will be costly! The Egyptians need a two goal margin at this point (if the other match ends in a draw - if Côte d'Ivoire wins by one goal Egypt will need a 5 goal margin!).  (remember: this all only matters if Morocco does not win)
16:00-16:30:  ('48) anotther of the dangerous Morocco counters: a long ball on #14 who passes the goalkeeper but cannot get the ball into the goal from a difficult angle  the match becomes more tensed when the referee handles it a bit too easily and some players seek retaliation themselves, after some minutes it calms down again  ('60) exciting scene in the Morocco penalty area, after the keeper has left his goal and is played out but several defenders can obstruct the way to the goal  Ivorians attack more and more desperately and becomne open for dangerous counters, when they try offside as means against the fast Morocco attackers  ('69) great save by the Ivorian keeper when the offside trap fails and leaves him against two attackers	16:00-16:30:  ('injury time) Egypt, who have taken over command again, score in injury time - 0:3  Final result   0:3  Egypt will qualify if Morocco-Côte d'Ivoire ends with a draw, otherwise the winner of the other match will go to Sydney
16:30-17:00:  It is difficult for the Ivorians to play through the crowded defence - the first goal would be the most difficult  -('75) Aruna wants a penalty but gets a yellow card  -('78) the referee sends off Ivorian #4 who comes late with a challenge and receives a second yellow card and leaves the pitch crying (the first yellow card had been doubtful if I remember right)  It is difficult for the Ivorians to play through the Many interruptions - there should be at least 5 minutes injury time added  Many fouls - the Ivorians are desperate, Morocco has to avoid a goal by all means. The referee has his problems in this difficult match, sometimes he does not see - other times he seems to try to award each player with a yellow card  -('88) Morocco keeper masters a Aruna 18 meter shot  -('90) opportunity for Morocco to seal it but shot goes wide  only 3 m,inutes injury time - a joke?  ('injury time) fouls eat up half of the time  the match is over - Morocco is qualified for Sydney 2000  Final result  2:1	16:30-17:00:  N

 

Morocco	6	11-8	13
Egypt	6	11-7	11
Côte d'Ivoire	6	13-10	8
Tunisia	6	5-15	1