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THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET    African Cup Of Nations 2000  JAN 22 - FEB 13  Nigeria/Ghana 
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The rankings of African football 
 
  • The premier ranking - A national team ranking that consideres both: Historical achievements and a higher weight for recent successes. It sees Nigeria in front of Cameroon, Egypt, and Ghana
  • a purely historical ranking still has Egypt leading, but Nigeria is close
  • In the 6-year-ranking Nigeria will lose its lead as the Nigerian Nations Cup ban 96/98 will come into effect
  • In the history of 6-year-rankings Egypt has been most constantly present but never top since 1963. Since the late 70's Nigeria and Cameroon have had the biggest and most solid impact, 6 different teams have yet reached the top: Egypt, Ghana, Zaire, Algeria, Nigeria, and Cameroon
  • FIFA rankings are no good assessment for African football: they depends on whom an association can afford to play against and whom they can afford to play with
in the following three types of rankings:
1) The premier rankings - a ranking that considers all past results but puts more weight on them the more recent they are - this is the most appropriate ranking to identify the actual status of a football nation
2) The 6-year-rankings in which all results that are six years or older drop out. This ranking can give information on the actual form
3) The historical rankings in which all achievements count the same, regardless when they have taken place

The premier ranking of national teams 
A provisional all-time big achievement ranking of the 16 nations based on the results of the past in African Nations Cup and World Cup, with an considerable emphasizing weight index on the recency of the event.  
 1. Nigeria 1778 p.
 2. Cameroon 1500 p.
 3. Egypt 1266 p.
 4. Ghana 1054 p.
 5. Morocco  976 p.
 6. Algeria  896 p.
 7. Côte d'Ivoire  714 p.
 8. Zambia  694 p.
 9. Tunisia  624 p.
10. South Africa  614 p.
11. DR Congo*  592 p.
12. Sudan  248 p.
13. Congo**  212 p.
14. Mali  200 p.
15. Ethiopia  180 p.
16. Uganda  160 p.
17. Senegal  128 p.
18. Guinea  120 p.
19. Libya  108 p.
20. Burkina Faso   52 p.
*includes the results for the same country as 'Zaire', 'Congo-Kinshasa'  
**Congo-Brazzaville  
in bold: qualified for Ghana/Nigeria 2000 

remarks:  
Nigeria tops this list because of  the increasing weight put on events the more closer they are, Cameroon is second because of World Cup achievements (4 participations, quarter-final 1990). For a table after the pure historical achievements, unregarding how far away they have been, see below.  
The table above results from absolute successes, achievements in top placements (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th.). A table with relative successes (points), minor successes (quarter finals reach etc.) and one in addition of club achievements (would boost Tunisia up) and other relevant competitions is planned, too.  
Anyway no table can achieve to reflect without deceiving the strength of teams competing in various competitions. Think of South Africa that has been banned, think of Algeria who have achieved all their points with a single player generation and might be considered much weaker today as for example Côte d'Ivoire who have been playing constantly on a good level for decades while not having produced such an exceptional generation, - yet. 
   
 With a victory, Cameroon could retake the lead, depending on Nigerias finish. Cameroon had taken over from Egypt in 1990 and had lost the lead again to Nigeria in the Eagles big success year 1994. Before it head been a two horse race: From 1968 until 1974 and from 1978 until 1986 Ghana had been in the pole position of this table. Before and in between it had been Egypt. 
  
  But for the time series another statistics is more valuable: 

 
 
 
 
 
The 6-year-ranking 
a kind of six year statistics based on the same pattern as the ranking above but  results that are 6 years old drop out. 
This means that always three editions of the Nations Cup count for it. When the 2000 edition is played the 1994 results will drop out. 
  
Leaders until 1965: Egypt  
1965-1973: Ghana  
1974-1979: Zaire  
1980: Nigeria  
1982: Ghana  
1984: Algeria  
1986-1992: Cameroon  
1994-1999: Nigeria  
Since entering the 6-year-top-ten 1976, Nigeria has not dropped out. Of all past number one teams only Algeria is not present in the current top 10. Egypt never had dropped out of the top exept once - 1996. That shows how unexpected the 1998 triumph came.  
The actual top10:  
  
end of 99
 1. Nigeria 788 p.
 2. South Africa 614 p.
 3. Tunisia 356 p.
 4. Zambia 342 p.
 5. Egypt 312 p.
 6. Morocco 300 p.
Cameroon 300 p.
 8. DR Congo* 156 p.
 9. Côte d'Ivoire 144 p.
10. Ghana 100 p.
*includes the results for the same country as 'Zaire'  
All of those play at Ghana/Nigeria 2000 

remark: Nigeria now loses the big points from 1994 (World Cup 2nd round and winning the Nations Cup) as only the actual year and the five past years count (1995-2000). Because South Africa has made all their points in 1996 and 1998 when Nigeria because of the Nations Cup ban has come out empty (apart from the participation at France 98), Nigeria will lose leadership in this ranking for sure, however the outcome of this Nations Cup will be. The only teams that can still catch South Africa are Tunisia and Egypt:  
  
2000, before Nations Cup:
 1. South Africa 614 p.
 2. Tunisia 356 p.
 3. Egypt 312 p.
 4. Nigeria 260 p.
 5. Morocco 156 p.
Cameroon 156 p.
DR Congo* 156 p.
 8. Zambia 150 p.
 9. Ghana 100 p.
10. Burkina Faso  52 p.
*includes the results for the same country as 'Zaire'

 
 
 
 
 
 
The historical ranking of national teams 
without any time weight index, the first table looks a bit different: Egypt still leads but Nigeria could take over 
 
 1. Egypt 1472 p.
 2. Nigeria 1344 p.
 3. Cameroon 1152 p.
Ghana 1152 p.
 5. Morocco  832 p.
 6. Algeria  736 p.
 7. Côte d'Ivoire  640 p.
DR Congo*  640 p.
10. Tunisia  576 p.
11. Zambia  544 p.
12. Sudan  416 p.
13. South Africa  384 p.
13. Ethiopia  352 p.
14. Congo**  256 p.
15. Mali  192 p.
Uganda  192 p.
17. Senegal  128 p.
Guinea  128 p.
19. Libya   96 p.
20. Burkina Faso   32 p.
*includes the results for the same country as 'Zaire', 'Congo-Kinshasa'  
**Congo-Brazzaville  
  
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